Cape Town’s dam levels have fallen below last year’s levels, despite the province being hit by devastating floods in May and June.

The Cape Town System dams currently stand at 77.63%, down from 82.06% at the same time last year. This decline comes even as the floods caused R9.1 billion in damage across the province and claimed 11 lives.

The Voëlvlei dam, which feeds water to parts of the Mother City, has dropped significantly from 79.55% last year to 61.77%. The Berg River dam has fallen from it’s 2025 high of 100.50% to 88.35% this year, whilst Steenbras Lower dam is down from 73.80% to 54.65%.

Only two dams in the system show improvement. Wemmershoek has climbed from 84.20% to 99.95%, and Steenbras Upper has also increased.

The province’s largest reservoir, Theewaterskloof, remains stable at 77.78%, almost identical to last year’s 77.59%.

The overall Western Cape dam levels are marginally higher than last year at 78.84%, up from 77.30% in July 2025. However, this improvement is concentrated in areas that experienced the worst flooding.

Record-breaking floods brought destruction

During the floods in May, Ceres recorded 507 mm of rain for the month, more than six times its long-term average and the highest amount since records began in 1955.

More than 231 000 people were affected across the province, and 22 890 houses were damaged. The agricultural sector suffered losses exceeding R5.2 billion, whilst transport infrastructure damage reached just under R2 billion.

Less than a month later, the Klein Karoo and Garden Route were hit again by severe flooding.

The Gouritz River Catchment, which includes much of the flood-affected Garden Route and Central Karoo areas, now stands at 99.17%, up dramatically from 71.24% last year.

Dry spell follows the deluge

But the May and June rains did not continue. Since then, the province has experienced notably less rainfall and warmer-than-usual winter temperatures.

The South African Weather Service had consistently forecast below-normal rainfall for the south-western and southern coastal regions throughout early 2026, influenced by weather patterns pushing cold fronts further south.

Climate experts note that rainfall in the Western Cape is increasingly occurring in short, high-intensity bursts rather than consistent, steady precipitation.

El Niño threatens drier summer

The South African Weather Service has warned that an El Niño weather pattern has developed and is expected to strengthen rapidly over the next few months, bringing a drier and warmer summer to most parts of the country.

Current predictions indicate the weather phenomenon will continue strengthening until early summer and persist at least until the end of the 2026/27 summer season.

ALSO READ: UN agency warns strong El Niño will bring extreme weather worldwide

El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than average, influencing global weather patterns. It typically leads to reduced rainfall and higher temperatures in southern Africa.

During the remaining winter period, eastern coastal areas are forecast to receive above-normal rainfall, whilst below-normal rainfall is predicted for the south-western and southern coastal areas.

Both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be above-normal for most parts of South Africa during the winter season.

The weather service said it would continue to monitor conditions and provide updates on expectations for the coming season.

ALSO READ: World braces for potentially strongest El Niño on record as ocean temperatures soar