Americans head to the polls in five weeks to vote in the midterm elections, a crucial referendum on President Donald Trump’s administration that could strip Republicans of their control over Congress.

The elections scheduled for 3 November will decide all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 33 Senate seats. Current polling shows Democrats leading by seven to 12 percentage points, whilst Trump’s job approval sits at just 39%, with 59% of Americans disapproving of his performance.

What are midterm elections

Midterm elections take place every four years, halfway through a president’s term. The US Constitution sets the president’s term at four years, but House members serve only two-year terms and senators serve six-year terms with one-third of Senate seats up for election every two years.

These elections determine which political party controls Congress for the next two years. Congress makes nationwide laws, with the House deciding which laws are voted on whilst the Senate can block or approve them, confirm presidential appointments and conduct investigations.

Voter turnout in midterm elections typically hovers around 40%, compared to 50% to 60% in presidential elections.

A referendum on Trump

Political analysts view midterm elections as a referendum on the sitting president’s performance. History shows the president’s party almost always loses ground, with the party losing an average of 26 House seats and four Senate seats since World War II.

Republicans currently hold just 220 House seats, only two more than needed for a majority. Analysts say the probability of Republicans losing control of the House is very high unless game-changing events occur before November.

Recent polls paint a grim picture for Trump and his party. An NBC News polling average shows Democrats leading 52% to 43% among likely voters. Emerson College found Democrats ahead by 11 points, with independents favouring Democrats 60% to 31% and Hispanic voters supporting Democrats 64% to 31%.

The NPR, PBS News and Marist poll released on 22 September showed registered voters favouring Democrats for Congress by 12 points. Trump’s approval rating sat at 39%, with 27% strongly approving and 12% somewhat approving, whilst 53% strongly disapproved.

Consequences of losing Congress

If Republicans lose control of either chamber, the legislative phase of Trump’s presidency would effectively end unless he pivots toward bipartisan cooperation with Democrats.

Losing Congress would limit Trump’s ability to pass major legislation. A Democratic-controlled House or Senate could launch oversight hearings putting his administration on the defensive. For a president whose approval rests partly on his ability to move swiftly and decisively, this would represent a major setback.

Congress exerts its strongest leverage when the president needs legislation to act, such as appropriations bills, treaty ratifications or debt-ceiling increases. Under divided government, the presidential veto becomes more important, as Trump could block hostile legislation, though Congress could override with a two-thirds vote in both chambers.

Divided government has also been essential in every serious impeachment effort. A president can be impeached by a simple majority vote in the House and removed by a two-thirds vote in the Senate.

Immigration and crime take centre stage

Facing electoral difficulty, Republicans have focused their campaign on core topics of crime and immigration. A key part of their messaging involves emotional testimony from “Angel Families”, relatives of people killed allegedly by illegal or undocumented migrants.

Republicans have held five legislative hearings using their congressional majority to give a voice to Angel Families, an initiative that began taking shape in Texas in 2009.

Elizabeth Carter lost her son and daughter-in-law in a road crash a year ago in Oregon. The driver charged with homicide, Rajinder Kumar, is an undocumented Indian immigrant who obtained a truck driver’s licence in California.

Kumar crossed the Mexico-US border illegally in 2022 and was detained. He was released in California pending a hearing, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

After the crash, a fundraising drive allowed him to post bail and be released pending trial, infuriating the Carter family.

“We’re rolling the dice with our children,” Carter declared at a House of Representatives hearing.

In another case, Sheridan Gorman (18) went for a night-time walk with friends along Lake Michigan near Chicago in March. An undocumented Venezuelan immigrant, Jose Medina, is accused of shooting her in the back as she ran from him.

Gorman died, and her mother Jessica’s harrowing testimony two months ago reverberated inside and outside Congress.

“The fact that American safety is a partisan issue blows my mind. It should be everyone’s issue,” the mother told AFP at a Justice Department event honouring Angel Families.

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Sanctuary state debate

The Gorman family and relatives of hundreds of other victims have decided to campaign to change sanctuary state laws.

Oregon, like California, is a sanctuary state, meaning its laws limit cooperation with Immigration and Customs Enforcement on handing over undocumented immigrants or information about them.

Kumar was eventually detained by ICE and is awaiting deportation, a Department of Homeland Security spokesperson told AFP, but Elizabeth Carter wants him to face justice first.

“My hope is that Mr Kumar gets a fair trial,” she told AFP. “Billy and Jenny, my son and daughter-in-law, deserve their day in court.”

Carter said she had never thought of illegal immigration as a problem for herself or her family.

“I was blissfully ignorant. I raised my children to care about their community, to volunteer,” she said.

“I was incredibly unaware that allowing them in the country means that sometimes they’re doing jobs they’re not qualified for, don’t have the proper training for, and that puts American lives at risk.”

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The immigration debate has grown increasingly bitter in the United States, with ICE accusing states of failing to hand over undocumented immigrants released from jail.

ICE raids across the country have also led to deaths, and the hearings in Congress have been tense, particularly when relatives on either side of the immigration drama take part.

Some Democratic lawmakers consider the five hearings on sanctuary states that often feature Angel Families to be excessive. They believe ICE is out of control.

“When we raise legitimate concerns about the thuggish way that the Trump administration is approaching immigration enforcement, Republicans try to blame everything on sanctuary jurisdictions,” Democrat Pramila Jayapal said during a September hearing.

Democrats “are not worried about the citizens of the United States who are being killed. They are producing their phony records and biased records, blaming ICE, blaming Trump. It’s unbelievable,” Anatoly Varfolomeev, another father who has testified, told AFP.

His 19-year-old daughter Anya died in a 2021 road accident. The driver charged in the case was in the country illegally and was drunk at the time of the crash.

The driver had previously been convicted of other crimes in the US in 2014. He was deported twice but managed to return.

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