With 100 days until America’s midterm elections, President Donald Trump’s Republican Party is confronting polling numbers that suggest they could lose control of the House of Representatives while fighting to keep their Senate majority.

Although Trump won’t be on the ballot on 3 November, the outcome could reshape his presidency. A Democratic-controlled House would hand the party powerful investigative tools, including subpoena authority, potentially exposing the administration to two years of scrutiny and even a third impeachment attempt.

Republicans narrow majority under threat

Republicans are heading into the final stretch with a razor-thin House majority, weak presidential approval ratings and voters increasingly frustrated by the cost of living and the ongoing conflict with Iran.

US elections forecaster Decision Desk HQ gives the Democratic Party a 59% chance of winning the House, predicting a 224-211 majority. Only a handful of seats need to flip, which historically happens during midterm elections when the president’s party typically loses ground.

Petrol prices have climbed above four dollars per gallon as the Iran conflict disrupts energy markets. Inflation remains high and interest rates continue to bite household budgets.

Polling cited by Democrats shows voters now trust them more than Republicans on inflation, healthcare and even immigration—traditionally a Republican stronghold.

“Donald Trump and Republicans have failed the American people,” House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said on Thursday, launching an affordability campaign focused on groceries, petrol, housing and healthcare.

Republican strategy relies on redistricting gains

Republicans are framing the election as a choice between what Speaker Mike Johnson calls “common sense” and what they describe as an increasingly left-wing Democratic Party.

Their strategy includes emphasising border enforcement and tax cuts while painting Democratic candidates as aligned with socialist policies.

Trump has been pushing hard for congressional Republicans to pass the SAVE America Act, which he claims is essential to prevent election fraud. Democrats condemn it as voter suppression.

Republicans have found more success in another arena: redistricting. Both parties have redrawn congressional maps to create safe seats, but Republicans appear set to gain a net advantage of between five and 12 seats—potentially enough to offset broader political headwinds.

Sarah Binder, a politics professor at George Washington University, said the redistricting battle had been particularly significant this cycle, with fewer than one in 20 House races now genuine toss-ups.

“Redistricting has really pared back the grounds on which Democrats can contest those seats,” she told AFP.

Republicans also hold a substantial financial edge, with party campaign committees and allied groups entering the final months with tens of millions of dollars more than their Democratic counterparts.

Senate race remains tight as Trump’s approval sinks

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The Senate race presents a different challenge. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats need to gain four seats. Decision Desk HQ narrowly favours Republicans to maintain control through a 50-50 split, with Vice President JD Vance casting tie-breaking votes.

Even a divided Congress—with Democrats controlling the House and Republicans holding the Senate—would dramatically alter Trump’s remaining time in office. His legislative agenda would stall, officials would face public hearings, and Democrats would gain a platform to examine the Iran war, administration ethics and election reforms.

Political analyst Chuck Todd said Republicans had gone from “clear favourites” in the Senate nine months ago to “very small favourites.”

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He predicted House elections would likely give Democrats a 10 to 25-seat advantage, pointing to Trump’s persistently low polling numbers.

The president’s popularity remains near record lows in a new Economist/YouGov survey, with 36% of Americans approving of his performance.

“There is no better predictor of a midterm than presidential job approval. A president’s job approval under 45 guarantees their party is going to lose seats,” Todd said.

“A president under 40—they’re going to lose chambers. The question is, how bad is it? How big is the wave going to be?”

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