VREDENBURG – With the local government elections scheduled for 4 November, the Democratic Alliance (DA) could once again emerge as the largest political party in Saldanha Bay Municipality, but this does not necessarily guarantee that it will retain control of the council.

The current municipal council consists of 27 councillors, comprising 14 ward and 13 proportional representation (PR) councillors. The distribution of seats is presented in Table 1.

Table 1: Current political composition of Saldanha Bay Municipal Council

Recent by-elections suggest that political support is changing. In December 2023, the EFF captured Ward 9 from the ANC with approximately 57% of the vote. In March 2025, MK won Ward 1, also previously controlled by the ANC, with approximately 36%. In April 2026, the DA retained Wards 5 and 6 with approximately 88% and 74% respectively.

These results suggest continued DA strength in established wards, while the ANC faces increasing competition from the EFF and MK. The Patriotic Alliance (PA) could also become a more significant electoral force, particularly if it attracts support previously going to GOOD and the Cape Coloured Congress (CCC, now NCC).

An important consideration is the distinction between ward and PR representation. The DA could retain most of its established wards while losing some overall electoral support. Conversely, the PA and Freedom Front Plus (FF+) could increase their council representation through stronger proportional voting support.

Table 2: Possible changes in political party representation

The 2026 council will increase from 27 to 31 seats, comprising 16 ward and 15 PR councillors, as confirmed in Western Cape Provincial Gazette No. 9204 of 6 March 2026 (Provincial Notice 91/2026). A governing majority will therefore require 16 seats.

Two possible outcomes emerge

Scenario 1: DA-led coalition

The DA remains the largest party but falls short of an outright majority. Some traditional DA voters could shift their support to the FF+, particularly on the PR ballot. Although insufficient to win wards, this could increase the FF+’s council representation without necessarily reducing the combined strength of a DA–FF+ coalition.

GOOD could provide additional coalition support, depending on its electoral performance. The DA would therefore retain control through an agreement with the FF+, GOOD or both.

Scenario 2: PA-led coalition

The DA remains the largest party but loses some of its existing wards to the PA. At the same time, the PA achieves a significant increase in its overall electoral support, particularly by attracting voters previously supporting GOOD and the CCC.

The combination of ward victories and increased proportional support could substantially strengthen the PA’s representation. Meanwhile, the EFF and MK could consolidate their recent electoral gains, while the ANC retains sufficient representation to remain an important coalition partner.

Together, the PA, ANC, EFF and MK could potentially secure the 16 seats required to form an alternative governing coalition, with the PA emerging as its leading political force.

Based on current representation and recent electoral developments, the two scenarios could be considered approximately equally plausible. However, this 50/50 assessment is an analytical judgement rather than a statistically calculated probability.

The decisive factor may therefore not be how many votes the DA loses, but which parties gain those votes. Saldanha Bay could ultimately have either a DA-led or PA-led municipal government.

• Dr Clive Coetzee is a senior lecturer in the Faculty of Military Science at the Military Academy of Stellenbosch University.