The cost of putting food on the table for South African households saw a “distinct shift upwards” in April 2026, as the ripple effects of international conflict and surging fuel prices have begun to bite.
According to the latest Household Affordability Index released today by the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice & Dignity Group (PMBEJD) the average cost of a household food basket has climbed to R5 452,09.
This represents a month-on-month increase of R123,56 (2,3%), a jump significantly higher than the seasonal norms recorded over the last three years.
The PMBEJD attributes this sharp escalation primarily to the spike in fuel prices resulting from the geopolitical conflict involving the USA, Israel and Iran.
South Africa’s food value chain is uniquely vulnerable to these shocks due to its heavy reliance on diesel and centralised distribution.
South Africa currently operates only two of its original six crude-oil refineries – NATREF and Astron Energy – importing roughly 70-80% of its fuel.
All this has automatic effects on the mechanics of logistics; the production of food centralised in hubs, the transport of goods over vast distances via national roads and so on.
When diesel prices rise these ‘internal efficiencies’ become cost liabilities, ones that are carried directly by the consumer.
The data paints a grim picture for those earning the National Minimum Wage (NMW). In April 2026, which featured 19 working days, a general worker earned a maximum of R4 594,96.
After paying for essential transport and electricity – which now consume 58,8% of a worker’s income – only R1 893,11 remained for all other expenses, including food.
The PMBEJD calculated that a basic nutritional basket for a family of four cost R3 787,34, leaving a staggering 50% shortfall.
South Africans are ‘just in time’ buyers,” the report warned. “We do not have stores of food in pantries… a sharp escalation of prices could quickly spiral into a National Security threat, similar to the July 2021 Unrest.
The report highlighted a widening crisis in child nutrition. While the child-support grant was increased to R580 this month it remained 32% below the food poverty line of R855.
The actual cost to feed a child a basic nutritious diet in April was R964,94, meaning the grant covers barely 60% of a child’s minimum nutritional needs.
While some items like oranges (-8%) and maize meal (-2%) saw slight decreases, the majority of the basket trended upward
The PMBEJD has advised the government to maintain the temporary relief of the R3/litre fuel levy reduction into May and beyond.
The group warns that without addressing structural vulnerabilities, such as the lack of a savings buffer for the unemployed and inadequate social security floors, South Africa remains unprepared for the “age of multiple crises” defined by war, climate change and social unrest.
“In the long term we need to balance economic needs with national security,” the report concluded. “Come a crisis, it will mean that we are not hit as hard.”
