Six months since the start of the Middle East war, the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains largely paralysed, with thousands of sailors still stranded in the Gulf and commodity carrier traffic far below normal levels.

Traffic plummets through strategic waterway

Before Iran blocked the strait in response to joint US-Israeli strikes in February, around one fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas exports passed through the waterway each day.

After Iran closed the strait on 1 March, commodity carrier traffic plummeted to an average of 10 transits per day, compared with a daily average of 95 in February, according to an AFP analysis of data from maritime tracker Kpler.

An agreement signed by the United States and Iran in June led to a temporary rebound to 36 transits per day, before they dropped back to an average of 15 between the resumption of hostilities on 8 July and 22 August.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned of a “danger zone” covering 1 400 square kilometres where mines may be present.

New navigation routes emerge

Before the war, vessels crossed the strait freely via a route through the centre of the waterway adopted by the International Maritime Organisation.

There are now two distinct routes: one to the north, near the Iranian coast – the only one approved by Tehran – and another to the south, between the Omani coast and potentially mined areas.

During the relatively calm period between 17 June and 7 July, an average of nine ships per day used the Iranian route and eight the Omani one. The rest transited via unidentified routes or the traditional IMO corridor.

Since the ceasefire collapsed on 8 July, two-thirds of transits have become “dark”, or unknown, compared with less than 1% before the war, according to Kpler.

These transits involve vessels whose exact route cannot be confirmed due to insufficient data stemming from disabled transponders, jammed signals or missing satellite imagery.

Thousands remain trapped at sea

Some 6 000 sailors and 500 ships have remained stuck in the Gulf since the beginning of the conflict, the IMO told AFP.

The organisation said there were “ongoing discussions” to ensure a secure maritime route, adding that their outcome “depends on de-escalation in the region”.

The IMO had begun an initiative in June to evacuate more than 11 000 seafarers stuck in the Gulf, but the effort was soon suspended following an attack on a vessel.

Over the past six months, at least 20 sailors and dockworkers have been killed in incidents or attacks in the region, according to the IMO.

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