South Africa’s agricultural sector has demonstrated remarkable resilience, recording a significant trade surplus of US$2.14 billion in the second quarter of 2026.

This represents an 11.6% improvement compared to the same period last year, marking a robust performance despite facing substantial domestic and global challenges.

The latest quarterly agricultural trade report, jointly published for the first time by AgriCulture South Africa (AgriSA) and the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz), reveals that total agricultural exports surged to US$4.12 billion, a 9.1% increase year-on-year. Imports also grew by 6.4%, reaching US$1.98 billion.

Horticulture and livestock drive growth

Horticulture remains the undisputed backbone of South Africa’s export economy, accounting for 51.3% of all agricultural exports in the quarter. This dominance coincided with the opening of the citrus season and a substantial increase in lemon exports. Strong performances were also noted in maize, raw cane sugar, sheep meat, and tobacco.

The livestock sector experienced the largest proportionate movement of any agricultural group, expanding by 27.9% quarter-on-quarter. This rapid growth comes as the red meat industry actively navigates critical market access issues.

Deep structural challenges persist

Despite these positive figures, the report underscores significant “structural challenges” threatening long-term growth.

Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) Crisis: South Africa is currently battling the most extensive Foot-and-Mouth Disease outbreak in its recorded history. This crisis continues to block key international markets, most notably China, which remains closed to South African red meat exports.

Trade with Key Partners: The report highlights uneven performance with traditional trading partners. Exports to the United States declined sharply by 28%, though this was partially attributed to shippers front-loading shipments into the first quarter ahead of predicted tariff changes. Exports to the United Arab Emirates also decreased by 26%. While Africa and Europe still absorb 70.7% of total exports, the downturn in other regions emphasizes the urgent need for diversification.

“Exporters are finding new markets even as traditional destinations become more challenging, but those gains will only hold if we resolve the constraints within our control,” cautioned Johann Kotzé, CEO of AgriSA. Kotzé identified FMD, phytosanitary market access, and the performance of port and rail infrastructure as critical bottlenecks.

Wolfe Braude, Agbiz Fruit Manager, added that port logistics inefficiencies remained a persistent issue, particularly as pome fruit (apple and pear) exports were still underway and the crucial citrus export season was ramping up.

Diversification and future outlook

The joint report did point to promising developments in export diversification. Compared with the same period last year, agricultural exports surged by 153% to Vietnam and 90% to Saudi Arabia. Exports to China also grew by 30%, buoyed by the implementation of zero-tariff access for African agricultural exports into China, effective from 1 May 2026.

Near-term certainty is also supported by the extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) through the end of 2028, although South Africa’s eligibility remains subject to annual US reviews.

Sustaining this export growth will require a multifaceted approach, said Agbiz Researcher Charmaine ka Makhaya. “Sustaining export growth will depend on improving market access, addressing trade barriers and strengthening South Africa’s competitiveness in international markets.”

Key Q2 2026 indicators:

• Agricultural Trade Surplus: US$2.14 billion (+11.6% YoY)
• Total Exports: US$4.12 billion (+9.1% YoY)
• Total Imports: US$1.98 billion (+6.4% YoY)
• Horticulture Share: 51.3%
• Livestock Q-o-Q Growth: +27.9%

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