Although Nelson Mandela Bay has received some good rainfall recently, the metro is still in the midst of a crippling drought that could last for another five or six years.
These are the words of Garth Sampson, commonly known as the “Weather Guru”, from the South African Weather Service offices in the Bay.
Sampson warned that the seven-year-long drought could probably carry on until 2027 or 2028 and that only a flood will save the metro from its water crisis.
“We are long overdue for a flood. It has happened in the Bay before and it will happen again. The question is just whether we are ready for it or not,” Sampson said during a recent virtual drought mitigation media briefing.
He explained that wattles are “growing like mad” and these often turn into forests, which would make for extremely unfortunate circumstances when – and not if – the flood comes.
“The wattles will block everything when the floods come. They quickly become forests if left unchecked but we have had enough warnings when looking at the floods that have taken place in other areas in the country.
“Wattle trees are also blocking parts of the Baakens River,” he said.
Sampson added that last month was the wettest August in Nelson Mandela Bay since 2006 and it does seem as though the metro is moving into a wetter season. However, this could change at any minute since Nelson Mandela Bay is not a summer but rather a winter rainfall area, which means that a chance of rain in December is slim.
He added that although the weekend’s rain looked promising, he did not want anyone to get their hopes up.
“We are not out of the woods; we are actually far from it. The situation remains critical.
“If we don’t get a good falling [of rain] in October or November this year, especially in November, we will have to wait until May next year.”
Director of Water and Sanitation in Nelson Mandela Bay, Barry Martin, who also joined the briefing, reiterated that there is still a long way to go before the Bay gets out of the drought.
He explained that as of today, there is more than 340 days of water left in the Churchill Dam and 230 days in the Kouga Dam. According to Martin, the metro has been focusing on leak repairs, eradicating more than 3 000 leaks.
“We had to deal with some contractual issues but haven’t taken our foot off the pedal with the contractors.
“People are also reporting more leaks. Nooitgedacht Phase 3 has been running since April and we have been able to put more water into the system,” Martin explained.
He also added that the microchips needed for that further commissioning of boreholes are in shortage worldwide but he remains hopeful that the boreholes will be sorted within the next month.
“The war in the Ukraine has affected us too and our infrastructure has been vandalised. Apart from that, the performance of the system relies entirely on people saving water at all times so we need to always save water,” he said.
