AS a travel destination, the country of France is arguably one of the most coveted in the world. But when it comes to Formula 1 racing, the Paul Ricard circuit doesn’t exactly fill fans with an overwhelming sense of excitement.
The circuit, located between the cities of Toulon and Marseilles, made its return to the F1 calendar in 2018. Lewis Hamilton won the last race around the circuit in commanding fashion, which racked up Mercedes’ eighth successive victory of the 2019 season.
In 2021 Merc and Hamilton arrive at the Le Castellet venue in quite a different position.
Granted, the French Grand Prix has been pushed to earlier in the season, but still few were likely to imagine Mercedes arriving on the French Riviera not leading either the driver’s or constructor’s championship standings.
After a chaotic Azerbaijan Grand Prix, in which neither Hamilton nor Max Verstappen scored points, the Red Bull driver holds a slender lead of four points over his rival. Checo Perez’s Baku win also earned Red Bull a 26-point lead in the constructor’s standings.
Traditionally, Mercedes have been untouchable around the Paul Ricard circuit. So dominant were Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas in 2019 that the nearest qualifier to them, Charles Leclerc, was nearly seventh tenths off the pace. Similarly, in the race Hamilton was roughly 20 seconds up the road from Bottas in second, who had put a good 20 seconds over Leclerc as well.
But if we know anything from the 2021 season, it is that Mercedes have not performed nearly as clinically as they have in past years. Here and there, some cracks have begun to show. It isn’t a given then that the team will arrive in France as the favourites and Red Bull needs to take advantage.
Verstappen is driving probably better than he ever has and this removes any doubt that, if the car is up to the task, the Dutchman will be at the sharp end. But it’s the ominous consistency of Verstappen that is most impressive in 2021. Even if Mercedes were to be quicker on race day, you can bet your house that Verstappen will be a close second, barring unreliability or tyre blowouts.
If Hamilton and Mercedes find themselves in uncomfortable territory, it is nothing compared to what Bottas is experiencing. The Finn has scored only 47 points and had a poor showing in Azerbaijan, which has done nothing but re-ignite the Russell-to-Merc rumours.
So boisterous have the rumours become that there are a good few who believe that George Russell may well be announced as a 2022 Mercedes driver during the Silverstone Grand Prix weekend, next month.
As the battle rages for the top honours, there is a French driver who has well and truly covered himself in glory this season. Pierre Gasly’s breakthrough podium in Brazil was a true watershed moment. His subsequent win in Monza and another podium in the last race has only solidified his talent. It seems unlikely that a move back to the senior Red Bull team is in Gasly’s future but there should be quite a few teams keen to get his signature in the next few years.
It is an important race for Alpine too as they will race at their home Grand Prix under their new guise for the first time. Fernando Alonso impressed in Baku but has so far been outdone by French teammate Esteban Ocon.
Race previews are usually expected to indicate who is favourite for the win. But the best thing about Formula 1 in 2021 is that this has become all but impossible to predict. All indications, and the track layout, say that Mercedes should have the edge but it just hasn’t been that simple this season.
What is a certainty is that the fight for supremacy is red-hot and might even be enough to inject some life into a circuit that has delivered dull races in its last two appearances.
