FREE STATE – The warning signs are there: the Free State cannot afford to wait for the next drought to arrive before preparing for it.

Climate analysts and international meteorological agencies have signalled a high probability of a strong El Niño weather pattern developing towards the end of 2026 and continuing into 2027. Such a pattern could bring hotter and drier conditions, increasing the risk of severe drought and devastating wildfires across South Africa.

For the Free State, this should be treated as a warning — not a prediction to be discussed only after the taps begin running dry.

The Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS) has expressed concern about the impact previous El Niño events have had on the province’s socio-economic and environmental sectors. Among the greatest risks is the ability of municipalities to maintain reliable water services.

DWS expresses concern

Most municipal water systems depend on raw water from rivers and dams. Prolonged drought can reduce river flows, lower dam levels and place enormous pressure on treatment plants, pumping infrastructure and distribution networks. Agriculture faces an equally serious threat, given its dependence on reliable rainfall and secure water supplies.

The good news is that the Free State has an opportunity to prepare while conditions are still favourable.

Two successive La Niña seasons have brought above-average rainfall, replenishing rivers, dams and groundwater reserves across much of the province. Current dam levels are approximately 100.4% of capacity, providing a valuable buffer against a potential dry cycle.

But full dams must not create a false sense of security.

The province is moving from winter into spring, bringing rising temperatures and increased evaporation. A prolonged period of heat and below-average rainfall could rapidly erode the comfortable position reflected in today’s dam figures.

Preparation must start now

Municipalities should be repairing leaks, reducing non-revenue water losses and accelerating the maintenance of treatment plants, pumps and pipelines. Monitoring of dam levels, river flows, groundwater reserves and water quality should be strengthened.

Strategic reservoirs, boreholes and wellfields must be protected, while drought-response plans and water-restriction measures should be reviewed and updated. Municipalities should also have emergency water-supply and contingency plans ready before a crisis develops.

Public awareness will be equally important. Residents, businesses and farmers must understand that water conservation is not something that begins when restrictions are imposed. It should be part of everyday water management.

Several Free State municipalities face particular vulnerabilities during severe drought conditions. These assessments focus on the availability of raw water and do not necessarily account for additional risks caused by infrastructure failures, poor maintenance or operational problems.

Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality, which includes Bloemfontein, Botshabelo and Thaba Nchu, relies heavily on the Caledon River, supported by the Groothoek, Rustfontein, Welbedacht and Knellpoort dams and regional groundwater aquifers. Prolonged drought and heatwaves could reduce runoff from the Lesotho highlands, increase evaporation and place further pressure on groundwater.

Moqhaka, which includes Kroonstad, Viljoenskroon and Steynsrus, depends primarily on the Vals River system, Bloemhoek Dam and Serfontein Dam. The seasonal nature of the Vals River makes the area particularly vulnerable to extended dry conditions.

Free State municipalities face particular vulnerabilities

Mafube, serving Villiers, Tweeling, Frankfort and Cornelia, relies largely on direct abstraction from the Vaal and Wilge rivers. Reduced river flows could therefore have a rapid effect on water availability.

In the eastern Free State, Maluti-a-Phofung depends on the Upper Wilge River catchment and the Fika-Patso and Metsi Matsho dams. Despite generally higher rainfall in the region, prolonged drought could sharply reduce mountain runoff and reservoir storage.

Nketoana, including Arlington, Lindley, Reitz and Petrus Steyn, depends on the Vals and Liebenbergsvlei rivers and smaller tributaries. Dihlabeng’s Fouriesburg relies heavily on the Caledon River, while Setsoto, including Ficksburg, Senekal and Clocolan, also depends significantly on the Caledon River and associated storage dams.

Mantsopa, including Ladybrand, Tweespruit and Excelsior, faces similar risks through its dependence on the Caledon River, local dams and shallow groundwater.

Further south, Mohokare, serving Zastron, Rouxville and Smithfield, draws water from the Orange and Caledon rivers as well as smaller municipal dams. Kopanong, including Trompsburg, Jagersfontein and Fauresmith, depends on groundwater, the Riet River and bulk transfers from Kalkfontein Dam.

Tokologo, serving Boshof, Dealesville and Hertzogville, is particularly dependent on groundwater and bulk water schemes. Prolonged dry conditions could reduce natural recharge and borehole yields, increasing pressure on already vulnerable communities.

The next drought should not be the moment when the Free State starts preparing for it

The lesson from previous droughts is straightforward: water security cannot be measured by dam levels alone.

A full dam does not fix a leaking pipeline. It does not repair a failing treatment plant. It does not guarantee that a municipality has functioning pumps, adequate storage or a credible emergency plan.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, but the severity of its consequences will depend partly on how well we prepare.

The Free State has something many drought-stricken regions do not have: time.

The dams are full. Water resources have been replenished. The warning has been issued.

Now is the time to act.

Waiting until reservoirs begin to fall, boreholes start failing and communities face water restrictions would be a serious failure of planning.

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