The temporary fuel-levy relief may well have diesel users breathing more easily but, based on the latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) daily data, petrol drivers may still have to hold their breath.

The relief was announced when Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana tabled his 2026 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement on Wednesday 21 October, in which he said the fuel levy would be reduced by R3,00 per litre for diesel and R1,50 per litre for petrol from 4 November until 1 December.

“This intervention will help ease cost-of-living pressures without compromising the sustainability of the budget,” he said.

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This forms part of Phase 1 of the relief, with the petrol levy reduced from R6,58 to R5,08 per litre and the diesel levy from R6,45 to R3,45 per litre.

However, the levy reduction will coincide with a new monthly fuel price adjustment, yet to be announced by the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, and current CEF data suggests that even though any increase will not be as steep as previously predicted one remains likely.

The current pump price for petrol in Gauteng sits at R30,25 per litre for 95 ULP and R29,88 per litre for 93 ULP, while the wholesale diesel price is R31,95 per litre for 0,05% sulphur and R32,80 per litre for 0,005% sulphur.

The unit under-recovery, which measures the gap between what motorists currently pay and what fuel actually costs to import, has from 2 to 20 October pointed to increases across all grades come 4 November.

If the November price were set on these figures alone 95 ULP would rise by R1,52 per litre to R31,77 per litre and 93 ULP by R1,59 per litre to R31,47 per litre. Diesel would fare worse, with 0,05% sulphur rising R1,25 per litre to R33,20 per litre and 0,005% sulphur climbing R1,24 per litre to R34,04 per litre.

When the Phase 1 levy relief is factored in, the picture changes considerably. Petrol 95 ULP would come to approximately R30,27 per litre and 93 ULP to R29,97 per litre. Diesel 0,05% sulphur would drop to around R30,20 per litre and 0,005% sulphur to R31,04 per litre.

These are speculative figures based on CEF data covering 62% of the October review period. Eight trading days remain and could still shift the final outcome before the official announcement.

While the levy relief will be welcomed, it is not enough to pull petrol 95 ULP back below the R30 per litre mark, a level only breached for the first time on 7 October 2026.

That is only Phase 1. Phase 2 comes into effect from 2 December until 5 January 2027, covering the festive period. A Lightstone analysis of Tracker mobility data last year recorded a sharp rise in traffic from November to December 2025, with the N6 up 48%, the N1 up 40%, the N3 up 31% and the N2 up 27%. If this year follows the same trend, the relief will be smaller precisely when South Africans are driving more, with the diesel levy reduction easing to R1,50 per litre and the petrol levy reduction to R1,00 per litre.

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