Motorists bracing for relief at the pumps will be disappointed, as early projections suggest October could bring the most expensive fuel prices South Africa has ever seen.

Central Energy Fund data shows 95 Unleaded petrol heading for an increase of roughly R2.00 per litre, while 93 Unleaded faces a R1.88 jump. Coastal drivers would pay R28.05 for 95 ULP, with inland prices reaching R28.92 in Gauteng. Both figures surpass the previous records set in June.

Diesel users face equally painful adjustments. The 50ppm grade could climb by R1.80 per litre, pushing prices to R30.29 at the coast and R31.85 inland. These levels sit just below the all-time peaks of R30.62 and R31.38 recorded earlier in 2026. The lower-grade 500ppm diesel shows a projected increase of R1.50.

Oil markets rattled by military strikes

Global oil markets have been thrown into turmoil by fresh military confrontations in the Gulf region. Brent crude hit $99.46 on Monday, its highest point since late July, before easing slightly to $99.33.

Over the weekend, US forces sank five Iranian oil tankers following attempted ballistic missile attacks on American naval vessels. Separately, Iran-backed Houthi fighters targeted Saudi energy infrastructure, forcing temporary shutdowns at several production sites.

Goldman Sachs analysts warn that sustained attacks on shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea could drive Brent crude past $120 per barrel. Vessel traffic through the strait has fallen to levels not seen since May, with some days recording just two to five transits.

September already brought steep hikes

The expected October shock follows heavy increases that took effect at the start of this month. Petrol climbed R1.34 per litre in September, while diesel surged between R2.94 and R3.15, depending on grade.

These back-to-back increases compound pressure on household budgets already strained by rising living costs. Food prices, transport fares and goods delivered by road all become more expensive when fuel costs spike.

Rand offers little protection

The relatively stable rand is doing little to shield consumers from the global oil shock. Trading at roughly R16 to the dollar, the currency is only reducing the fuel price impact by about 15 cents per litre.

The Reserve Bank has flagged fuel price surges as a double threat to the economy. Higher costs at the pump feed directly into inflation while simultaneously reducing consumer spending power, which can slow economic growth.

Final figures due before month-end

Important to note is that current projections rely on early September market data, which can shift considerably before the official announcement. The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources will confirm final adjustments in the last days of September, with new prices taking effect on 7 October.

However, with the Middle East conflict showing no signs of cooling and the Strait of Hormuz remaining vulnerable to disruption, market analysts say the trajectory points firmly upward for now.

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