Europe’s climate monitor confirmed on Thursday that August was the hottest month ever recorded worldwide, warning that rising El Niño conditions will push temperatures even higher.
Global temperatures over land and sea reached all-time highs in August, ending a summer of heatwaves and wildfires that broke records across western Europe and the United States.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service said global average air temperatures in August hit 16.96°C – beating the previous single-month record set in July 2023 by just 0.01°C. The EU monitor considers the two months joint-highest because of the tiny difference.
Copernicus records date back to 1940, but evidence from ice cores, tree rings and coral skeletons shows today’s climate sits far outside normal historical patterns.
“Humans haven’t seen temperatures as hot as today for, arguably, at least the last 100 000 years,” said Samantha Burgess from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which oversees Copernicus.
UN climate chief Simon Stiell called the findings proof of “the spiralling price of humanity’s fossil fuel addiction”.
Ocean temperatures break records for three months
The extreme summer pushed ocean temperatures to record highs for three straight months, said Simon van Gennip from Mercator Ocean International on Thursday.
Marine heatwaves have lasted more than 60 days in some overheated areas, showing how unusual and long-lasting the situation has become.
Global sea surface temperatures set a new all-time daily high in August and matched the hottest month for oceans ever recorded.
Copernicus said the main cause was global heating from burning coal, oil and gas, combined with sharply rising temperatures in the Pacific, where a historic El Niño is gaining strength.
El Niño episodes bring unusually warm Pacific waters but trigger major global changes in rainfall and winds, raising the risk of wild weather thousands of miles away.
Global forecasters predict this year’s event will peak later in 2026 at an intensity never seen in the modern era.
On Thursday, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said there was a 75% chance it “would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950”.
Indonesia wildfires already show El Niño impact
Copernicus said the pattern’s influence was already visible in Indonesia, where a long, intense dry season has fed wildfires that have burned large areas of Borneo island.
But climate scientists said the worst lies ahead – and August’s extreme heat was just a preview.
Even ordinary El Niño episodes have a temporary warming effect, boosting global heat and adding to the impact of long-term climate change.
That extra heat often helps make the year after El Niño peaks the hottest on record globally.
Scientists expect 2027 to become a record-setting year but Burgess said 2026 could also prove historic.
“We expected 2026 to be top five but now it’s second place, maybe in first place… We’ve seen a striking reminder of how quickly the climate system can shift when multiple drivers have aligned,” she said.
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The combined effect of climate change and El Niño would mean records “falling over the next six months”, said Burgess, an ocean scientist and strategic lead at ECMWF.
“Climate change makes every El Niño hotter, and until we stop burning coal, oil, and gas these record-shattering months will simply keep on coming,” said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist from Imperial College London.
Western Europe suffers hottest summer on record
Copernicus said western Europe experienced its hottest summer, beating the long-standing 2003 record.
The season brought severe, back-to-back heatwaves that shut schools, dried up rivers and set the stage for devastating wildfires.
Between mid-July and mid-August, the continent’s EuroMomo monitoring platform estimated that Europe saw more than 32 000 excess deaths.
But abnormally hot conditions spread far beyond Europe – Copernicus said the June to August period was the equal-warmest globally on record, matching 2024.
An AFP analysis of Copernicus data showed that regions home to around 900 million people lived through the hottest July ever observed.
On Wednesday, NOAA said the contiguous United States endured its hottest summer on record.
The summer has been “exceptional”, but the climate will “continue to get more extreme unless we turn off the tap to global emissions”, said Burgess.
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