The planet logged its third hottest year on record in 2025, extending an unprecedented streak of extreme heat with no relief expected in 2026, according to leading US researchers and EU climate monitors announced Wednesday.
The last 11 years have now been the warmest ever recorded, with 2024 claiming the top spot and 2023 in second place, data from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service and Berkeley Earth, a California-based non-profit research organization, revealed.
In a troubling milestone, global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time when averaged over the past three years, Copernicus reported in its annual assessment.
“The warming spike observed from 2023-2025 has been extreme, and suggests an acceleration in the rate of the Earth’s warming,” Berkeley Earth stated in its separate analysis.
Paris agreement targets under threat
These findings cast a shadow over the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement, which commits nations worldwide to limiting warming to well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to cap it at 1.5°C – a threshold scientists consider crucial for avoiding catastrophic climate consequences.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned in October that breaching the 1.5°C limit was “inevitable,” though he emphasized the world could minimise this overshoot period by rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Copernicus projects the 1.5°C threshold “could be reached by the end of this decade – over a decade earlier than predicted.”
Global impact by the numbers
Temperatures in 2025 averaged 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels – just marginally cooler than 2023’s 1.47°C – following 2024’s record-breaking 1.6°C, according to EU climate data.
The human impact was staggering: approximately 770 million people experienced record-warm annual conditions in their regions, while no location on Earth recorded a record-cold annual average, Berkeley Earth reported.
Both polar regions felt the heat intensely – Antarctica experienced its warmest year on record, while the Arctic logged its second-hottest year, Copernicus data showed.
An AFP analysis of Copernicus data revealed that Central Asia, the Sahel region, and northern Europe all experienced their hottest years on record in 2025.
No respite expected in 2026
Climate experts from both Berkeley Earth and Copernicus warned that 2026 offers little hope for cooling.
“If the warming El Niño weather phenomenon appears this year, this could make 2026 another record-breaking year,” Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, told AFP.
Buontempo emphasised the relentless nature of the warming trend: “Temperatures are going up. So we are bound to see new records. Whether it will be 2026, 2027, 2028 doesn’t matter too much. The direction of travel is very, very clear.”
Berkeley Earth projects 2026 will likely mirror 2025’s extreme conditions, “with the most likely outcome being approximately the fourth-warmest year since 1850.”
Emissions fight falters
The alarming temperature data emerges amid stalling efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions—the primary driver of climate change – across developed nations.
US emissions climbed last year, ending a two-year decline streak as harsh winters and artificial intelligence expansion drove energy demand higher, the Rhodium Group think tank reported Tuesday.
Meanwhile, emission reduction efforts have slowed significantly in major European economies including Germany and France.
Adding to concerns about US climate policy, President Donald Trump announced plans to withdraw the United States – the world’s second-largest polluter after China – from the foundational UN climate treaty.
Scientists point to additional warming factors
“While greenhouse gas emissions remain the dominant driver of global warming, the magnitude of this recent spike suggests additional factors have amplified recent warming beyond what we would expect from greenhouse gases and natural variability alone,” explained Berkeley Earth chief scientist Robert Rohde.
The organisation highlighted how international maritime regulations requiring cleaner ship fuel since 2020 may have inadvertently contributed to warming. By reducing sulfur dioxide emissions, which create sunlight-reflecting aerosols, these environmental improvements may have removed a cooling effect on global temperatures.
ALSO READ: Third-hottest July on record wreaks climate havoc
