South African households and businesses were paying an estimated R22.2 billion more for fuel every month by October than they did in February this year.

This is according to calculations by Dr Clive Coetzee, a senior lecturer in the Department of Economics in the Faculty of Military Science at University Stellenbosch.

Coetzee’s analysis estimates that higher petrol and diesel prices added R108.54 billion to the country’s fuel bill between March and October, assuming consumption remained at February 2026 levels.

His calculations are based on 2024 national fuel sales data and coastal fuel prices.

The temporary fuel-levy relief announced by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana last week, on Wednesday 21 October, may offer some relief to diesel users, while petrol motorists may still face price pressure.

When tabling the 2026 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, Godongwana announced that the fuel levy would be reduced by R3 per litre for diesel and R1.50 per litre for petrol from Wednesday 4 November until 1 December.

The increase at the pump

According to Coetzee’s figures, the coastal price of 95-octane unleaded petrol rose from R19.27 per litre in February to R29.38 in October. This represents an increase of R10.11 per litre, or 52.5%.

The price of diesel increased from R17.12 to R31.93 per litre over the same period, a rise of R14.81 per litre, or 86.5%.

Coetzee’s calculations use estimated monthly consumption of approximately 713 million litres of petrol and 1.01 billion litres of diesel.

Based on these volumes, he estimates that South Africa’s monthly fuel bill rose from R31 billion in February to R53.21 billion in October.

The cumulative additional cost increased from R11.3 billion in April to R45.98 billion in June and R108.54 billion in October, according to his analysis.

Impact on households and businesses

Coetzee’s analysis highlights the financial pressure that rising fuel prices can place on households and businesses. Higher fuel expenditure leaves households with less money available for other expenses, while businesses face increased operating costs.

The transport, agriculture and logistics sectors are particularly exposed to diesel price increases because they rely on fuel to move people, produce and goods. Higher transport costs can also contribute to increasing prices for goods and services.

The figures are estimates rather than a direct measurement of actual additional spending. They assume that fuel consumption remained constant at February levels throughout the period and use coastal prices as the baseline.

Factors including international oil prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate influence fuel prices. Coetzee’s calculations estimate the additional cost associated with the price increases under these assumptions.

His analysis illustrates the scale of the additional financial burden that higher fuel prices have placed on South African households and businesses between March and October 2026.

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