If you drive a petrol car, you’re in for some good news at the pumps come August. But if you drive a diesel vehicle or depend on diesel transport, brace yourself for a painful price hike.
The latest fuel price predictions from the Central Energy Fund – the government body that tracks these numbers – show a clear split between petrol and diesel prices for next month.
What the numbers mean for you:
- Petrol 93: Could drop by 24 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: Could drop by 20 cents per litre
- Diesel: Could jump by around 62-63 cents per litre
- Paraffin: Could increase by 26 cents per litre
To put this in perspective: if you fill up a typical 50-litre petrol tank, you could save about R10-12. But diesel drivers filling the same size tank could pay an extra R31.
Why the big difference?
The main culprit is what’s happening in global oil markets, which have been on a roller coaster ride lately. Think of it like this: South Africa doesn’t produce enough oil for our needs, so we have to buy it from other countries. When those global prices change, we feel it at our local petrol stations.
Here’s what’s been happening:
- Oil prices shot up to over $80 per barrel in June because of tensions in the Middle East
- They then dropped back below $70 per barrel when things calmed down a bit
- But the market is still jittery about conflicts around the world
The rand has actually been doing quite well against the US dollar lately, which helps cushion the blow. When our currency is stronger, it costs us less to buy oil from overseas.
Why diesel is getting hit harder
The tricky part is that diesel and petrol don’t always move in the same direction in global markets. Right now, international diesel prices are climbing faster than petrol prices, which explains why diesel drivers are facing such a steep increase.
This matters for more than just diesel car owners. Most trucks, buses, and delivery vehicles run on diesel, so when diesel prices go up, it often means higher prices for goods in shops and more expensive public transport.
Important things to remember
These are still just predictions based on mid-month data. The government only announces the final fuel prices a few days before they come into effect at the beginning of each month.
Oil markets can be unpredictable, and prices could still change before the end of July. Global events – from wars to trade disputes between major countries – can quickly shift oil prices up or down.
The bigger picture
This year, global oil prices have actually dropped by about 8% overall. This is partly because major oil-producing countries are increasing their supply, and partly because of uncertainty in global trade.
But for South African consumers, what matters most is how these global changes translate into what we pay at the pump. Right now, that means mixed news: relief for petrol drivers, but a significant squeeze for anyone who relies on diesel.
The government uses a complex formula that takes into account not just oil prices, but also shipping costs, refinery margins, and currency movements to calculate our local fuel prices. While we can’t control global oil markets, the strength of the rand does play a crucial role in how much of that global volatility we actually feel in our wallets.
