Production: Minenhle Thusi | Journalist: Natasha Bezuidenhout

Up to 100,000 jobs are on the line as South Africa gets removed from a US trade deal called AGOA, effective 1 January 2027. Here’s what that means for the country.

AGOA is a deal signed in 2000 that lets eligible African countries sell goods to the US without paying import duties. Think of it as a discount that made South African products cheaper in American shops. By 2025, only about 10% of our exports to the US still used it.

The sectors hit hardest are automotive and agriculture. Vehicles made up nearly two-thirds of all AGOA trade in 2024. After US tariffs hit in 2025, car exports to North America fell by about three-quarters. Most jobs at risk are in citrus and car manufacturing.

For American shoppers, South African citrus, wine, and cars will cost more. For South African workers, the risk is real. Job losses would hit families and towns that depend on these industries, where jobs are scarce. Treasury says the economic hit is small, but the human cost falls on communities that can least afford it.

Without AGOA, South African goods face the standard tariff the US charges any country, plus two extra tariffs already in place: 25% on vehicles and 12.5% on most other products, linked to a forced-labour finding.

South Africa has 60 days to appeal. Trade Minister Parks Tau says government is diversifying, including a duty-free deal with China from May.

While the AGOA decision landed on the eve of local government elections, the news doesn’t stop there. Tomorrow, South Africans head to the polls, and NovaNews, Die Papier and Nuuspod are joining forces for live coverage in English and Afrikaans, with real-time results on the NovaNews interactive map, ward by ward.