The breakdown of peace talks between the United States and Iran has left President Donald Trump facing limited options, with analysts questioning his decision to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
US Vice President JD Vance departed Pakistan without securing a deal after marathon negotiations with top Iranian officials, dashing hopes of ending a conflict that has spread across the Middle East.
Vance said on Sunday (12 April) after marathon talks in Islamabad that he was leaving negotiations after giving Tehran the “final and best offer”.
The failed talks complicate Trump’s position. Prolonged negotiations would contradict his assertion that Iran has “no cards” left to play, whilst increased military action would expose US forces to greater risk and potentially alienate voters already frustrated by rising petrol prices ahead of midterm elections.
The blockade of the strait, through which one-fifth of global oil supplies pass, has done little to ease international economic concerns.
Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said Trump’s tendency to make impromptu threats has left his advisers struggling to chart a clear course.
“He may be simply buying more time to move in more military assets or because he doesn’t know what else to do. I wouldn’t call it a strategy; it is a military-centric approach without strategy,” Katulis told AFP.
Shibley Telhami, a professor at the University of Maryland and fellow at the Brookings Institution, described the blockade threat as “bewildering and seems self-defeating”.
“Iran already has no trust in Trump,” Telhami said.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards pledged on Sunday that Tehran’s enemies would be trapped in a “deadly vortex” if they made any wrong move in the strait.
Danny Citrinowicz, a fellow at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said a naval blockade would expose US forces to increased risk and that Iran’s resilience suggested it would not capitulate. He added that sustaining such an operation would require substantial American resources given Iran’s geographic scale and military capabilities.
A CBS News poll published on Sunday revealed widespread concern amongst Americans about the conflict, which began in late February. When asked how they felt about the war, worry, stress and anger far outweighed safety and confidence.
More than 80 per cent of respondents said the United States should reopen the strait and improve global oil access to reduce petrol prices. However, fewer than 10 per cent believed those goals had been achieved.
Democratic Senator Mark Warner questioned the strategy on CNN on Sunday.
“I don’t see how, 40-plus days into this war, that we are safer, that our allies are safer. I’m not even sure Israel is safer,” Warner said. “I don’t understand how blockading the strait is going to somehow push the Iranians into opening it.”
Democratic Senator Tim Kaine said negotiations would be difficult, given Trump’s decision to withdraw from a 2015 nuclear accord between Tehran and world powers that restricted Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief.
Katulis noted the mutual distrust between the two sides. “Iranian officials are also untrustworthy and duplicitous, but the Trump administration is providing the mirror image of that,” he said.
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