US President Donald Trump has admitted the war he started with Iran played a major role in his Republican Party’s crushing defeat in Tuesday’s midterm elections — but experts say he now faces a difficult choice with no easy answers.

Democrats won control of both the Senate and House of Representatives in what many are calling a political earthquake. Trump finds himself trapped between wanting to end the war diplomatically and his earlier promises to “finish it off” with Tehran.

“Trump is now in a bind: Escalation offers no clear path to victory and risks further wrecking his presidency, while diplomacy offers a potential way out,” said Sina Toossi, senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy.

Toossi told AFP the new Democratic Congress will have major oversight and funding powers from January, which will limit Trump’s options even more.

High fuel costs drove voters away

Trump said Wednesday that “it’s largely true” Iran and the soaring fuel prices caused by the conflict led to the massive Republican loss. However, he stood by his decision, saying he would “do it again” despite the electoral beating.

Vice President JD Vance, who many see as a possible candidate for the 2028 presidential race, put it more bluntly.

“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” Vance wrote on X.

Many American voters blamed high living costs and the Iran war for their decision at the ballot box. For farmers who normally vote Republican, expensive energy costs are “really just leading to despair,” Charles Hall, executive director of the North Carolina Soybean Producers Association, told AFP.

Hall, a North Carolina voter, pointed to huge swings toward Democrats in his state. “That tells me that they’re voting against something.”

“If they’re farmers, they’re probably voting against high diesel prices,” Hall said.

Tehran hit back at US-Israel strikes on Iran since late February by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global energy transport. This sent oil prices through the roof.

More than just Iran

Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow James Lindsay told AFP the “historic drubbing that Republicans took on election day happened for reasons that go well beyond Iran.”

He called the “blue tsunami” a rejection of much of Trump’s agenda. The president won the 2024 election promising to make life more affordable for Americans.

“What we’ve seen over the past two years is that Americans believe that life has become even more unaffordable,” Lindsay told AFP. “The Iran war clearly played into that by driving up the price of gas and diesel.”

Lindsay added that Trump has “often behaved in ways that suggested he was indifferent to the pain and suffering of Americans.”

Toossi said: “The message from voters is clear: They want relief from the war’s economic costs, not more war.”

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Democrats demand end to conflict

Top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer said Wednesday the Iran war “must end,” with prospective Speaker of the House Hakeem Jeffries saying the same thing.

But nobody knows if Trump will listen to voters and try to end the fighting quickly, or push ahead with it.

“Putting aside the election, doubling down on Iran was always a dangerous strategy,” Lindsay said.

A fresh wave of heavy attacks — even if planned as short-term — could backfire if Iranians respond by hitting targets across the Gulf.

“This could spiral out of control,” he said, while admitting Trump’s other choices “aren’t terribly good either.”

The US naval blockade in the Middle East puts pressure on the country’s military, while talks have failed to make real progress so far.

“The president’s in a difficult position regardless,” Lindsay said.

If Vance’s views on the war are shared by other Republican lawmakers, Trump faces new political dangers if he doubles down on Iran.

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