President Cyril Ramaphosa has told the nation to prepare for the possibility of losing access to a crucial US trade agreement, as relations between the two countries continue to worsen.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) gives eligible sub-Saharan African countries duty-free access to the US market. South Africa is the programme’s biggest beneficiary.
Congress keeps South Africa in for now
Ramaphosa said Congress has decided to keep South Africa in AGOA, which has been renewed until the end of 2028. However, the deal still needs US President Donald Trump’s signature.
“So that I prepare our people for this, if we ever have a choice, we are not the first and only country to be taken out of AGOA. And I believe we will not be the last,” Ramaphosa said while answering a question from an AFP journalist during a briefing on Monday.
The US president reviews countries’ eligibility for AGOA every year. Any removal requires 60 days’ notice to Congress and the affected country. To take effect on 1 January, an exclusion must be announced by 2 November.
Former president Joe Biden declared the Central African Republic, Gabon, Niger and Uganda ineligible on 30 October 2023, with the exclusions taking effect on 1 January 2024.
Relations between US and South Africa deteriorate
Ties between Washington and Pretoria have worsened since Trump took office. The US has cut aid, expelled South Africa’s ambassador and berated Ramaphosa in the Oval Office over false claims of a “white genocide”.
Washington announced visa restrictions in mid-September for South Africans who promote “race-based discrimination, incite violence, or enable land confiscation without compensation”. South Africa disputes all these issues.
Last year, the US launched a programme to resettle white Afrikaners who say they face persecution and violent crime in South Africa. By 30 September, the US had admitted 16 287 South Africans under the programme over the preceding year. They were the only people granted refugee status by Washington during that period, apart from five Afghans.
Jobs and exports at risk
Ramaphosa said South Africa will look for alternative markets to reduce the impact of a possible exclusion.
“I need as president to prepare us if it ever happens. So we should not go out and jump off tall buildings and think that this is the end of the world,” he said. However, he admitted the impacts would be “devastating”.
Under AGOA, Washington exempts South African cars from customs duties. After precious metals, cars are the country’s second-biggest export to the US, according to the South African tax authorities.
In 2025, the automobile employers’ organisation Naamsa said 86 000 jobs were directly tied to the accord at car manufacturers. This number increases to 125 000 when including sub-contractors.
