Two months before South Africans head to the polls, new research shows the country’s major cities remain fiercely contested, with large numbers of registered voters yet to make up their minds or decide whether to vote at all.

An Ipsos poll conducted between June and July has revealed a fractured electoral landscape ahead of the 4 November local government elections, with no clear winners emerging in most metropolitan municipalities.

The study, which interviewed 3 600 randomly selected South Africans in their homes and home languages, suggests coalition governments will likely remain the norm in most major cities.

Mari Harris, political analyst at Ipsos in South Africa, said different parties were competing from very different positions of strength depending on the metro.

“Currently, only MK shows a strong dominant position in eThekwini, suggesting that many metros are headed for coalition governments,” Harris said.

Voter turnout could swing results

The research found that 70% of respondents were registered voters with the Independent Electoral Commission. Of these, three-quarters said they were likely or very likely to vote on election day.

However, significant numbers in several provinces indicated they would not vote. In KwaZulu-Natal, the Northern Cape, North West and the Free State, between one-quarter and three in every 10 registered voters said they did not intend to cast ballots.

In key metros including Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Tshwane and Buffalo City, between one-fifth and one-quarter of registered voters currently indicate they will stay home. Mobilising even a portion of these voters could significantly influence outcomes in closely contested municipalities.

MK dominates Durban, DA holds Cape Town

The poll shows MK commanding 55% support in eThekwini, significantly outperforming other parties in the coastal metro. This makes it the only party showing majority-level support in any major city.

In Cape Town, the DA records 46% support and could potentially exceed 50% as campaigning continues.

The ANC and DA remain locked in competitive races in Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay and Buffalo City, with neither party showing a clear advantage.

ActionSA has recorded double-digit support in Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni, suggesting its strongest electoral presence remains concentrated in Gauteng’s metropolitan areas.

Regional patterns persist

Nationally, political support varies considerably across provinces. The ANC continues to enjoy particularly strong support in Limpopo and the Eastern Cape, while the DA remains dominant in the Western Cape.

MK remains largely a KwaZulu-Natal phenomenon, while the EFF is making notable inroads in Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape and continues to perform well in Limpopo.

The poll found registered voters in the Western Cape (84%) and Limpopo (83%) appear most likely to participate in the elections.

Campaign battles intensify

Helen Zille has been campaigning for months and has drawn considerable attention with her campaign in Johannesburg, while other parties have been slower off the mark.

Ipsos cautioned that the figures should not be interpreted as predictions of the final election outcome, noting there was still much campaigning to do and many voters to persuade before South Africans cast their ballots.

The study is designed to provide insight into the views of South Africans from all provinces, settlement types and backgrounds. Results are weighted and projected to the population of South Africans aged 18 years and older who are eligible to vote.

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