South Africans are being urged to prepare for a severe winter weather system as a powerful cold front, followed by a cut-off low, is set to sweep across the country starting on Sunday, 9 August.
Forecasters warn of widespread freezing temperatures, heavy rainfall, and significant snowfall over large parts of the eastern interior.
Sunday, 9 August: Cold front arrives
The severe system will make landfall over southern South Africa on Sunday, ushering in cold, wet, and windy conditions.
- Coastal & Interior Rainfall: The heaviest rain on Sunday is expected along the South Coast, including the Garden Route, and across significant portions of the Eastern Cape, with localised accumulations reaching up to 20 mm.
- Snowfall Warnings: Light snow is predicted over the Western Cape mountains, the Nuweveld Mountains, and around Sutherland. Heavier snowfall – potentially up to 10 cm – is anticipated over the high-lying regions and mountains of the Eastern Cape, before spreading toward Lesotho, the southern Drakensberg, and surrounding areas.
Monday, 10 August: Major travel warnings issued
Conditions are expected to deteriorate further on Monday as a high-pressure system ridges behind the cold front and a cut-off low develops, driving intense winter weather further east.
The cut-off low will deliver heavy rain across KwaZulu-Natal, the Highveld, and the eastern Free State, with expected rainfall between 15 mm and 30 mm within 24 hours. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also forecast for Gauteng, Limpopo, and the North West.
Both the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) confirm significant snowfall across key transport corridors.
Authorities and forecasters warn of severe disruptions on major routes, including Van Reenen’s Pass, where mountain passes may be rendered impassable or closed entirely.
Recalling the severe September 2024 snow disaster that left motorists trapped in freezing conditions for hours, forecasters strongly advise against non-essential travel between the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, and Mpumalanga over the public holiday and into Tuesday.
Tuesday, 11 August: Model uncertainty remains
While forecasts for Sunday and Monday carry high confidence, Tuesday’s outlook remains uncertain due to divergent outputs between major global prediction models:
- ECMWF Model: Projects continued heavy rain (up to 50 mm) over eastern Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and parts of the East Coast, alongside persistent snowfall over the Mpumalanga Highveld, south-eastern Gauteng, eastern Free State, and the Drakensberg.
- GFS Model: Predicts significantly lower rainfall intensity in the north-east and limits Tuesday’s snowfall primarily to the southern Drakensberg.
Forecast Summary & Next Steps
Forecasters note that small shifts in the exact positioning and strength of the cut-off low could dramatically alter local impacts, particularly for Tuesday’s weather.
