ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA – Ethiopian forces battled overnight to repel an assault by Tigray rebels in the Afar region, a humanitarian source said on Friday 25 September, with reports of an internet blackout in the north of the country.

Rebels in the northern Tigray region seized local airports and launched attacks into the neighbouring states of Afar and Amhara this week, saying they were once again in a “full-blown war” with the federal government.

Locals fear a repeat of the telecommunications blackout and supplies blockade imposed on Tigray during the last civil war in 2020-’22 that killed an estimated 600 000 people.

Online monitor Netblocks said there was an “internet disruption in northern Ethiopia corresponding to reports of a telecoms blackout in Tigray”. AFP was unable to contact sources in the region by phone on Friday.

A humanitarian source in Afar said there was “heavy fighting overnight” around the town of Abala that sits in the mountains on the border with Tigray.

“The federal forces pushed the rebels from entering the town,” the source said, adding that a drone was used by the army.

Heavy clashes occurred in North Wollo Zone of Amhara on Thursday, including around the UNESCO World Heritage sites in Lalibela, home to Ethiopia’s famed rock churches.

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Strategic objectives

Analysts say the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) appears to be repeating its strategy from the last war – pushing south through Amhara towards the capital, Addis Ababa, whilst the offensive in Afar is likely aimed at cutting off supplies from Djibouti, which provides almost all of Ethiopia’s international trade cargo, including fuel.

The TPLF has forged an alliance with six other armed groups around the country in a bid to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

“The alliance is likely trying to seize settlements alongside key infrastructure routes to undermine the federal government’s ability to supply,” Edward Bach of consultancy firm Verisk Maplecroft told AFP.

The government has a significant military advantage, however, with a large arsenal of drones, an army numbering some 500 000, and the support of external actors, notably the United Arab Emirates.

International implications

The renewed fighting comes at an awkward moment for the United States, which only this month lifted sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea related to atrocities committed during the last civil war, saying the “national emergency… has expired”.

The US embassy sided with Ethiopia’s government this week, saying it was “disappointed to see the leadership of the TPLF… launch a large-scale offensive”.

The conflict could also draw in neighbouring Eritrea, which fears landlocked Ethiopia is planning to invade it to gain access to the Red Sea.

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Panic buying

Back in Tigray, prices for basic goods have been spiking as locals raced to stock up on supplies.

“There is panic in the community,” Samuel Gebreslassie (37), who works in a spice shop in the Tigray capital, Mekelle, told AFP on Thursday.

“There is deep fear that banks, telecom networks, electricity and basic goods could be cut off again.”

The TPLF ruled the whole of Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018 before being sidelined with Abiy’s rise, eventually triggering a civil war marked by widespread war crimes and sexual violence.

The Pretoria Peace Agreement of 2022 maintained an uneasy calm until last year, but was never fully implemented, with around one million people still displaced.

Sporadic clashes then resumed, with the federal forces launching multiple drone strikes in Tigray in recent months and massing troops at the border.

Rights groups have accused the TPLF of a campaign of forced recruitment this year as it prepared for renewed conflict.