Artificial intelligence (AI) could increase the value of global trade by nearly 40% by 2040 through lower costs and higher productivity, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said on Wednesday.
Releasing its annual World Trade Report, the WTO described AI as a rare bright spot at a time when the global trading system has been shaken by high tariffs imposed by the United States.
“AI holds major promise to boost trade by lowering costs and reshaping the production of goods and services,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said while presenting the findings.
According to WTO simulations, AI adoption could raise exports of goods and services by close to 40% compared to current trends.
But the report also warned that, without the right policies, lower-income countries risk being left behind. Okonjo-Iweala noted that while higher-income economies could see income gains of about 14% by 2040, poorer nations might achieve only an 8% rise if the digital divide persists.
Closing half of that digital infrastructure gap and adopting AI more broadly, however, would allow developing countries to match the gains of wealthier nations.
“With the right mix of trade, investment and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies,” Okonjo-Iweala said.
At the same time, the WTO flagged a surge in restrictions on AI-related trade. Nearly 500 measures were in place in 2024 – mostly in richer and middle-income countries – up sharply from 130 in 2012.
