Rassie Erasmus loves keeping everyone guessing, and he’s at it again.
Breaking from normal tradition, the Springbok mastermind will only unveil his starting XV for Saturday’s first Test against the All Blacks on Thursday, leaving the rugby community to indulge in everyone’s favourite pastime: playing armchair selector.
The questions are delicious. Who gets the No 10 jersey? Does he risk Siya Kolisi and Ox Nche as they work their way back from injury? Who starts at scrumhalf? And perhaps most intriguingly, what bench split does he opt for, the traditional 5-3, the infamous 6-2 Bomb Squad, or does he go full chaos with a 7-1?
We’ll have answers soon enough. But until Thursday’s big reveal, speculation runs rampant.
The rugby brains at KickOff Rugby, NovaNews, Die Papier and The Rugby Factory podcast have donned their selector hats and picked their Springbok teams for Ellis Park. The results? Fascinating divergence on some positions, near-unanimous agreement on others.
Let’s dive into the selections and see where the consensus lies, and where opinions split dramatically.
The certainties
Some positions pick themselves, and the selectors agree almost unanimously.
Damian Willemse at fullback? Tick across the board. The utility back’s ability to cover multiple positions and offer a genuine playmaking threat from deep makes him indispensable.
The centre pairing of Jesse Kriel and Damian de Allende? Five out of six selectors agree, with only Andy Daniel breaking ranks to start André Esterhuizen at inside centre and shift De Allende to the bench.
Malcolm Marx at hooker? Universal agreement. When you’re world-class, selection is straightforward.
Eben Etzebeth in the second row? Again, no debate. The enforcer’s name writes itself onto the team sheet.
Pieter-Steph du Toit at openside and as captain? Five of six selectors hand him both the No 7 jersey and the armband, with only Craig Taylor opting to keep Kolisi in the leadership role.
Jasper Wiese at No 8? Unanimous. The Bulls powerhouse gets the nod from every single selector.
The great flyhalf debate
Here’s where it gets spicy. Four selectors back Manie Libbok to start at No 10, whilst Dustin Wetdewich opts for the exciting Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu to get first crack.
Interestingly, most who start Libbok have Handré Pollard on the bench as insurance, the classic Rassie move of giving Libbok the freedom to attack early before bringing on Pollard’s boot and game management for the closing stages.
Feinberg-Mngomezulu represents the wildcard option, youth, fearlessness, and the unknown factor that could unsettle the All Blacks. But is Ellis Park against New Zealand really the place for that gamble?
The Kolisi conundrum
This is perhaps the most telling divergence. Craig Taylor starts the captain at blindside flanker, backing his fitness and leadership. Sergio Miller, Dustin Wetdewich, Stehan Schoeman and Andy Daniel all opt for Paul de Villiers to start at No 6 instead.
Franco Havenga goes even bolder, selecting Cameron Hanekom at blindside, a selection that screams attacking intent and youthful dynamism.
The question is legitimate: do you risk Kolisi if he’s not 100%? His leadership is invaluable, but the All Blacks will target any physical weakness mercilessly. De Villiers offers physicality and work rate without the injury concern. Hanekom offers X-factor and fearlessness.
Rassie’s call here will tell us everything about Kolisi’s true fitness status.
The scrumhalf split
Grant Williams gets four starting nods, with Cobus Reinach getting Craig Taylor’s vote and Morné van den Berg earning Franco Havenga’s selection.
Williams offers a livewire presence and sniping threat around the fringes. Reinach brings experience and a proven track record at Test level. Van den Berg? That’s the bolter selection that would raise eyebrows, though his form for the Lions has been exceptional.
Most have Reinach on the bench regardless, offering the experience and calm head for the closing stages.
Wing selections show personality
This is where individual selector philosophies really shine through.
Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse are the consensus picks, but which wing they occupy varies. Some prefer Kolbe’s wizardry on the right, others on the left.
The real intrigue comes with the curveballs. Franco Havenga backs Edwill van der Merwe to start – a genuine speed demon who could exploit space if the All Blacks tire. Andy Daniel goes for Ethan Hooker, the form winger whose performances have been impossible to ignore.
Both are gutsy calls that prioritise current form over established hierarchy.
The bench battles
This is where the divergence becomes almost comical. No two bench selections are identical, reflecting the insane depth South Africa currently enjoys.
Some opt for the traditional Bomb Squad approach with a 6-2 split. Others prefer the 5-3 for additional backline cover. Franco Havenga’s 7-1 selection is absolutely wild, seven forwards on the bench with only Grant Williams as backline cover. It’s the ultimate expression of faith in the starting backs’ durability and the forwards’ game-changing impact.
Lock options include Franco Mostert, Ruan Nortjé, Lood de Jager and Cobus Wiese in various combinations. Loose forward cover ranges from Marco van Staden to Deon Fourie to Cameron Hanekom.
The backline bench options are equally varied: Handré Pollard, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Canan Moodie, André Esterhuizen and various others all get mentions depending on the selector.
Your turn
So there you have it, six informed rugby minds, six different Springbok XVs, and countless selection debates to chew over until Thursday.
The beauty of this exercise isn’t finding the “correct” answer, it’s appreciating the depth of talent Rassie has at his disposal and the legitimate arguments for multiple combinations.
Now it’s your turn. What’s your Springbok XV for Ellis Park? Who have the selectors got spot on? Where have they completely lost the plot?
Drop your team in the comments below and make your case. Thursday’s announcement will reveal who got closest to Rassie’s thinking, and more importantly, Saturday at 17:10 will show us which combination can tame the All Blacks.
The guessing game ends Thursday. The real game starts Saturday.
The Teams
Craig Taylor (KickOff Rugby)
15. Damian Willemse, 14. Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13. Jesse Kriel, 12. Damian de Allende, 11. Cheslin Kolbe, 10. Manie Libbok, 9. Cobus Reinach, 8. Jasper Wiese, 7. Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6. Siya Kolisi (captain), 5. Ruan Nortjé, 4. Eben Etzebeth, 3. Thomas du Toit, 2. Malcolm Marx, 1. Ox Nche.
Bench: 16. Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17. Gerhard Steenekamp, 18. Zachary Porthen, 19. Cobus Wiese, 20. Paul de Villiers, 21. André Esterhuizen, 22. Grant Williams, 23. Handré Pollard.
Sergio Miller (KickOff Rugby)
15. Damian Willemse, 14. Cheslin Kolbe, 13. Jesse Kriel, 12. Damian de Allende, 11. Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10. Manie Libbok, 9. Grant Williams, 8. Jasper Wiese, 7. Pieter-Steph du Toit (captain), 6. Paul de Villiers, 5. Ruan Nortjé, 4. Eben Etzebeth, 3. Thomas du Toit, 2. Malcolm Marx, 1. Zachary Porthen.
Bench: 16. Johan Grobbelaar, 17. Carlu Sadie, 18. Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 19. Lood de Jager, 20. Deon Fourie, 21. Cobus Wiese, 22. Cobus Reinach, 23. Handré Pollard.
Dustin Wetdewich (NovaNews)
15. Damian Willemse, 14. Cheslin Kolbe, 13. Jesse Kriel, 12. Damian de Allende, 11. Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10. Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9. Grant Williams, 8. Jasper Wiese, 7. Pieter-Steph du Toit (captain), 6. Paul de Villiers, 5. Franco Mostert, 4. Eben Etzebeth, 3. Wilco Louw, 2. Malcolm Marx, 1. Ox Nche.
Bench: 16. Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17. Boan Venter, 18. Carlu Sadie, 19. Ruan Nortjé, 20. Marco van Staden, 21. André Esterhuizen, 22. Cobus Reinach, 23. Canan Moodie.
Stehan Schoeman (Die Papier)
15. Damian Willemse, 14. Cheslin Kolbe, 13. Jesse Kriel, 12. Damian de Allende, 11. Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10. Manie Libbok, 9. Grant Williams, 8. Jasper Wiese, 7. Pieter-Steph du Toit (captain), 6. Paul de Villiers, 5. Ruan Nortjé, 4. Cobus Wiese, 3. Thomas du Toit, 2. Malcolm Marx, 1. Ox Nché.
Bench: 16. Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17. Wilco Louw, 18. Gerhard Steenekamp, 19. Eben Etzebeth, 20. Marco van Staden, 21. Cobus Reinach, 22. Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 23. Canan Moodie.
Franco Havenga (Die Papier)
15. Damian Willemse, 14. Cheslin Kolbe, 13. Jesse Kriel, 12. Damian de Allende, 11. Edwill van der Merwe, 10. Manie Libbok, 9. Morné van den Berg, 8. Jasper Wiese, 7. Pieter-Steph du Toit (captain), 6. Cameron Hanekom, 5. Ruan Nortjé, 4. Eben Etzebeth, 3. Thomas du Toit, 2. Malcolm Marx, 1. Ox Nche.
Bench: 16. Marco van Staden, 17. Wilco Louw, 18. Zachary Porthen, 19. Lood de Jager, 20. Franco Mostert, 21. Paul de Villiers, 22. André Esterhuizen, 23. Grant Williams.
Andy Daniel (The Rugby Factory)
15. Damian Willemse, 14. Cheslin Kolbe, 13. Jesse Kriel, 12. André Esterhuizen, 11. Ethan Hooker, 10. Manie Libbok, 9. Grant Williams, 8. Jasper Wiese, 7. Pieter-Steph du Toit (captain), 6. Paul de Villiers, 5. Ruan Nortjé, 4. Eben Etzebeth, 3. Thomas du Toit, 2. Malcolm Marx, 1. Ox Nche.
Bench: 16. Johan Grobbelaar, 17. Wilco Louw, 18. Gerhard Steenekamp, 19. Franco Mostert, 20. Cameron Hanekom, 21. Cobus Reinach, 22. Handré Pollard, 23. Damian de Allende.
