South African motorists are in for welcome relief at the pumps next month, with substantial fuel price decreases expected from the beginning of November following moderate movements in October.
According to the latest unaudited data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), petrol prices are set for significant reductions, with 95 Unleaded expected to decrease by 58 cents per litre and 93 Unleaded by 62 cents per litre.
Diesel users will also benefit from the downward trend, with 500ppm diesel anticipated to drop by 34 cents and 50ppm diesel by 33 cents per litre. Current daily data suggests these over-recoveries could increase further by month-end.
If these predictions materialise, 95 Unleaded petrol could reach its lowest level since February 2022. The anticipated 57 cent decrease would bring the price of 95 Unleaded down to R20.22 per litre at the coast and R21.06 in Gauteng, while 93 Unleaded is expected to cost around R20.86 following the projected 61-cent reduction.
On the diesel front, a 33 cent decrease will see the wholesale price retreat to R18.30 per litre, making it 65 cents less expensive than January levels.
The predicted decreases stem primarily from lower international product prices, with South Africa’s stronger rand contributing an additional 11 cents to the over-recovery for petrol prices.
This month has seen Brent Crude oil tumble to its lowest level in almost six months, with prices dropping to around $61 per barrel. According to Reuters, the softer prices reflect concerns about excess supply and demand risks, particularly amid trade-related tensions between the world’s top oil consumers, the United States and China.
Despite the current oversupply situation, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is proceeding with plans to increase production, prompting analysts to forecast a crude surplus for both this year and next.
“The pressure from oversupply in the crude oil market is gradually materialising,” said analysts from China’s Haitong Securities. “This will dampen market expectations and curb investors’ willingness to chase gains, limiting the potential for oil prices to rebound.”
The confluence of factors points to continued good news for South African motorists at the pumps for November, with the possibility of further relief extending into December. However, whether this positive trend will persist into 2026 remains uncertain, with analysts continuing to monitor global market dynamics and geopolitical developments.
