The number one ranking is already gone, before a ball is even struck in Saturday’s final. But Aryna Sabalenka couldn’t care less, there’s a far more glittering prize on the line at Flushing Meadows, and the Belarusian powerhouse is ready to go to war to claim it.
Sabalenka is chasing a third consecutive US Open crown that would etch her name alongside legends Chris Evert and Serena Williams in the record books. Standing in her path? Elena Rybakina, the ice-cool Kazakh who’s already snatched the world number one crown and carries the blueprint for dismantling Sabalenka’s game after January’s Australian Open triumph.
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This blockbuster final is a rematch of that Melbourne showdown, where Rybakina flipped the script on their 2023 Australian Open final to claim her second major title. It’s the latest chapter in a rivalry that’s quickly becoming the defining storyline of women’s tennis, with Sabalenka holding a 10-7 career edge but Rybakina owning the psychological advantage from their most recent Grand Slam meeting.
The tale of two seasons
The 28-year-old from Minsk started 2025 like a freight train, bulldozing past Rybakina on the way to prestigious WTA 1000 titles at Indian Wells and Miami in March. But the wheels came off spectacularly at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, with early exits raising questions about her ability to maintain dominance across surfaces.
Flushing Meadows has provided the answer in emphatic fashion. Sabalenka has reemerged as an unstoppable force on the New York hardcourts, delivering a near-flawless masterclass of power and precision to dismantle Jessica Pegula in straight sets and reach her fourth consecutive US Open final.
“She’s a big server. She really improved over the years on the baseline game,” Sabalenka said, sizing up her opponent. “So it’s going to be a physically and mentally tough match. But I’m ready for the fight. I’m ready to do everything to get the win.”
Rybakina’s injury-defying run
For Rybakina, just being fit enough to contest the final represents a minor miracle. The 27-year-old’s preparations were thrown into chaos by a heel injury that forced her withdrawal from Cincinnati last month, leaving her uncertain whether she’d even make it to New York.
Not only has she made it, she’s thrived. The injury hasn’t slowed her down one iota, as evidenced by her gutsy comeback from a set down to topple defending champion Coco Gauff in the semi-finals. That victory guaranteed her ascension to world number one, regardless of Saturday’s outcome.
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“She’s a very aggressive player. It’s difficult to play with her, mentally, physically, because she has a big game, a big serve,” Rybakina said. “I will need to come with all the energy I have. Bring my best serve against Aryna and make the right decisions in the right moment, because most of the times it’s a tight, tight score. This is where the decision makes a difference.”
Mental warfare awaits
The contrasting personalities make this clash even more compelling. Sabalenka, the fiery competitor who wears her emotions on her sleeve, against Rybakina’s granite-faced composure and ice-in-the-veins demeanour. It’s a psychological battle as much as a physical one, with neither player willing to give an inch.
Sabalenka has stumbled in several recent major finals despite her remarkable consistency. Madison Keys spoiled her bid for a third straight Australian Open title last year, before Rybakina dealt the knockout blow in Melbourne this January. Now, as she targets the three-peat in New York, the four-time Grand Slam champion insists she’s learned to block out the external noise.
“It sounds simple, but it’s not really simple to do sometimes,” she admitted.
Rybakina, whose Wimbledon triumph in 2021 preceded this year’s Australian Open glory by four years, is adamant their fierce rivalry doesn’t extend beyond the white lines.
“It’s an important match,” she said, “but since it’s a final I feel like it doesn’t matter who is on the other side. You just want to win and do your best. But also, I don’t want to put too much pressure on myself.”
The ranking that doesn’t matter
In a twist of fate, both players insist the number one ranking, the very thing Rybakina secured and Sabalenka will lose, pales in comparison to hoisting the trophy on Saturday evening.
Sabalenka admitted it felt “a little bit weird” to know she’ll surrender the top spot after a dominant fortnight in New York. But if the tournament ends with silverware in her hands? “I don’t care,” she declared.
