South Africa faces no immediate risk of fuel shortages despite rising global oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting international markets, the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources said on Tuesday.
The department said it remains in constant communication with oil companies operating in the country to ensure the stability and security of fuel supply, and is closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and their potential impact on global oil markets and fuel prices.
“While prolonged geopolitical tensions may exert pressure on international oil prices, the department wishes to assure the public that there is currently no immediate risk of fuel shortages in South Africa,” it said in a statement.
South Africa currently has two operational crude oil refineries, NATREF and Astron Energy, in addition to the Sasol Secunda coal-to-liquids plant. These facilities rely on crude oil imports sourced primarily from West Africa and increasingly from other countries across the African continent.
The department confirmed that the Astron Energy refinery is currently undergoing a planned maintenance shutdown. However, the company has secured sufficient fuel imports as part of standard operational planning to meet supply requirements during the maintenance period.
The continued rise in international crude oil prices is expected to result in higher fuel prices at the pump from April 2026. The under-recovery on fuel prices has been fluctuating since the onset of the conflict.
The department said it will continue to monitor the situation closely and will provide further updates before the official fuel price adjustments for April are announced.
Oil companies that currently import refined petroleum products from countries affected by the conflict are actively exploring alternative supply sources to ensure uninterrupted fuel availability in the domestic market.
“The department remains optimistic that the tensions will de-escalate in the near future, which would help stabilise global oil markets and contribute to improved fuel price conditions,” it said.
Expected April 2026 outlook
As from April, the National Treasury will implement its annual adjustments to fuel levies, as announced in this years Budget speech:
- Carbon fuel levy: Increasing to 19c/l for petrol and 23c/l for diesel.
- General fuel levy and RAF: 21c/I
Based on current under-recovery data and the upcoming tax increases, here is Top Auto’s predictive model for the price adjustments effective Wednesday, 1 April:
| Fuel Type | Estimated Hike (per litre) | Predicted inland price |
| Petrol 95 | + R2.60 to R3.10 | R23.40 |
| Diesel 0.05% | + R4.50 to R4.80 | R23.35 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | + R6.60 |
Please not, these are predictive price adjustments as the price increases have not yet been officially announced for April 2026.
