Motorists face marginal fuel price increases in March after two months of relief

South African motorists could see a slight increase in fuel prices in March, ending a two-month streak of price cuts that brought relief to consumers in January and February.

Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that both petrol and diesel price recoveries are currently in negative territory, with petrol sitting on the cusp of an over and under recovery of just a couple of cents per litre.

Diesel faces a steeper underrecovery of approximately 46 cents per litre, whilst illuminating paraffin is projected to increase by 23 cents per litre.

The projected changes remain fluid and could shift depending on movements in the rand and global oil prices over the remainder of the month. If oil prices decline or the rand strengthens further, petrol users could still see marginal savings.

Projected mid-month fuel price changes

According to CEF data, the following adjustments are expected:

• Petrol 93: increase of one cent per litre
• Petrol 95: increase of two cents per litre
• Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of 45 cents per litre
• Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of 47 cents per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: increase of 23 cents per litre

The CEF does not provide daily snapshot data for LP Gas, and the mid-month figures are not entirely predictive of the final fuel price adjustments. The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources only announces the final price a few days before the implementation date.

Rand cushions blow from rising oil prices

The main factor driving fuel price underrecoveries is the shift in international petroleum product prices, which are largely influenced by global oil prices. South Africa imports already refined petroleum products, making it vulnerable to these fluctuations.

However, the rand’s strength against the dollar is acting as a significant buffer, pulling underrecoveries back by between 16 and 19 cents per litre and softening the impact of rising oil prices.

Expected pump prices

This is how the price changes are expected to reflect at the pumps. Diesel prices reflect wholesale; pump prices will differ.

Inland

Coastal

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