PARIS – Marine Le Pen (57) faces a year under house arrest with an electronic tag after a French appeals court upheld her conviction in a European Parliament fraud case, throwing her planned presidential campaign into doubt.

The Paris appeals court on Tuesday found the far-right National Rally (RN) leader guilty of misusing European Parliament funds to pay party staff in France, but reduced her sentence from the lower court’s original ruling.

Le Pen received a 15-month ban from holding public office, dating from March 2025, along with one year of house arrest to be served with electronic monitoring. The ban is expected to expire before France’s presidential elections scheduled for April and May 2027, but Le Pen has said she may not run if the sentence prevents her from campaigning properly.

The verdict leaves the three-time presidential candidate’s political future hanging in the balance at a time when her party has its strongest chance yet of winning power. Opinion polls show the far right leading in the first round of next year’s vote.

“I’m not scared,” Le Pen said last week. “If I can run, I will – as long as I can campaign.”

She is expected to announce her decision later on Tuesday about whether to proceed with her presidential bid.

Fraud scheme spanning 12 years

The case centres on a system operated between 2004 and 2016 in which European Parliament funds were allegedly diverted to employ RN staff working in France rather than for EU parliamentary duties.

Prosecutors claim Le Pen “professionalised” the scheme after taking over party leadership in 2011, building on a system first introduced by her late father and party co-founder Jean-Marie Le Pen.

The first trial in 2025 convicted Le Pen along with 24 former European lawmakers, assistants and accountants, as well as the anti-immigration party itself. A lower court sentenced her to a five-year ban from public office and a two-year prison term.

Le Pen, who arrived at court on Tuesday wearing a pale pink jacket, has described the prosecution as a “witch hunt”. Judges in the case received death threats. She and 10 others appealed the original verdict.

During the appeal trial, Le Pen denied the RN had operated any system to embezzle European Parliament funds, insisting her party acted in “complete good faith”.

Prosecutors had sought a four-year term with three years suspended and demanded the court maintain the five-year ban from office.

Bardella waiting in wings

If Le Pen cannot run, the candidacy could pass to Jordan Bardella (30), the current RN party leader who serves as her deputy.

Le Pen came third in the 2012 presidential election, then reached the runoff stage against centrist President Emmanuel Macron in both 2017 and 2022. Macron is stepping down after serving two terms.

Recent polls show mixed results on who would perform better between Le Pen and Bardella, though political opponents have suggested the veteran politician would pose a greater challenge.

“This woman is very intelligent, she’s not here by chance. And if she does also run for a fourth time, she won’t be an opponent we can sneer at,” hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon has said.

A Harris Interactive Toluna survey of more than 1 700 registered voters in May projected Le Pen winning runoffs against Mélenchon as well as centrist former prime ministers Gabriel Attal and Édouard Philippe.

However, other polls suggest Philippe, who is also courting right-wing voters, could defeat a far-right candidate in a runoff.

The outcome of Le Pen’s decision will shape the contours of what is shaping up to be France’s most contested presidential race in years.

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