South Africa’s inflation rose slightly in August, with the latest figures showing that price pressure remains relatively subdued.

The annual inflation rate increased to 4.4% (from 4.3% in July), while the consumer price index remained unchanged month-on-month.

This is according to the latest figures from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), which were released last week.

Patrick Kelly, the chief director of price statistics at Stats SA, pointed out that inflation for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose for the first time since November 2025 – from 0.9% in July to 1.1% in August. The general health index fell month-on-month.

The unchanged monthly inflation figure was also better than the market expected.

Better than expected

Kevin Lings, Stanlib’s chief economist, says the lower-than-expected figure is largely thanks to lower fuel prices and subdued food prices.

He also points out that there were no other significant price changes.

This includes furniture, household appliances, vehicles and certain recreational goods. Some of these prices still get support from cheaper imports.

Food prices remained unchanged month-on-month in August, while fuel prices decreased.

However, fuel was still considerably more expensive (20%) than a year ago.

Core inflation, which is monitored by the Reserve Bank when they decide on interest rates, also decreased slightly – to 4.1%. This figure falls outside the Bank’s inflation target of 3%, with a tolerance of one percentage point on either side.

Agricultural season provides relief

Wandile Sihlobo, the chief economist of Agbiz, says the low food inflation is still supported by an abundant 2025-26 agricultural season.

Grain products, fruit and vegetables are among the most important items keeping prices low, while meat price inflation has also started to cool.

He expects food inflation to remain fairly low for the rest of this year, but warns that the picture may change in 2027. Higher fuel costs could make food distribution more expensive, while a possible El Niño drought could affect next season’s harvests.

Jee-A van der Linde, a senior economist at Oxford Economics Africa, also expects inflation to rise to near 5% by year-end.

Oxford Economics expects average inflation of 4.2% this year and 3.8% in 2027.

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