South African motorists are likely to see some relief at the pumps in June, though the benefit is set to be partially offset by the phased withdrawal of a government fuel levy discount introduced earlier this year.

Mid-month figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) point to a more settled pricing environment after two turbulent months.

A resilient Rand and relatively range-bound oil prices – still above US$100 per barrel – have contributed to modest fuel price recoveries.

Petrol recoveries currently sit between -13 and -19 cents per litre, a dramatic improvement from the severe under-recoveries recorded in April and May.

Diesel tells an even stronger story. Following cumulative price hikes of nearly R13 per litre over the past two months, diesel is now showing an over-recovery of between R3,52 and R4,41 per litre – a significant turnaround.

ALSO READ: Long-distance Eastern Cape trips see significant price hikes

Mid-month recovery snapshot

• Petrol 93: +13c/litre
• Petrol 95: +19c/litre
• Diesel 0,05% (wholesale): – R4,41/litre
• Diesel 0,005% (wholesale): – R3,52/litre
• Illuminating paraffin: – R4,37/litre

The Rand has held its ground, trading around R16,50/US$, and while it softened slightly to R16,60/US$ following weak jobs data, it has not breached R17/US$ on a sustained basis – offering some comfort against global headwinds.

On the oil front, the ongoing conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh on supply.

The International Energy Agency has cautioned that global inventories are depleting at a record rate and that markets could remain “severely undersupplied” until October – keeping upward price pressure very much alive.

ALSO READ: SA fuel prices spike as petrol and diesel soar – tips to help consumers save

The catch

The National Treasury’s temporary fuel levy reduction – R3,00/litre for petrol and diesel in April, extended to R3,93/litre for diesel in May – is now being unwound. From June, 50% of that relief is reinstated, with the remainder following in July.

The practical impact is significant. Diesel’s projected R4/litre cut shrinks to roughly R2/litre, while petrol faces a hike of approximately R1,65/litre rather than the modest 15 cents, the raw recovery data might suggest.

The slate levy, not yet factored in, could influence the final pump prices further.