German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (70) faces mounting pressure after his CDU party suffered a crushing defeat to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in a state election over the weekend.

The anti-immigration AfD scored its biggest victory yet with 44% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, while the centre-right CDU managed just 18%, according to broadcaster projections.

The result puts the pro-Trump and Moscow-friendly AfD – officially classified as “right-wing extremist” by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency – within reach of running its first state government.

Historic breakthrough for far-right

CDU state premier Sven Schulze acknowledged the defeat, saying national government policies had not always helped his campaign. “We often faced headwinds, and that wasn’t always easy,” he said.

The AfD appeared to fall just short of an absolute majority in the state assembly in Magdeburg, setting up what could be lengthy negotiations before a new government takes shape.

Daniel Guenther, the CDU premier of Schleswig-Holstein state, described the outcome as troubling. “For the first time since the end of World War II, the AfD – a party whose state branch is classified as right-wing extremist – is close to securing an absolute majority,” he said.

AfD candidate mocks chancellor

The AfD’s lead candidate, Ulrich Siegmund (35), mocked Merz after the results came in, calling him “a very good campaigner” for the AfD. He said voters had sent “a signal to Berlin” and that every day with Merz as chancellor was “one day too many”.

AfD national co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla urged their state branch to form a government, viewing the result as a blueprint for national elections in 2029.

According to broadcaster projections, the AfD fell three seats short of an absolute majority of 42 seats in the regional parliament.

Parties opposed to the AfD – including the CDU, centre-left SPD, Greens and far-left Die Linke – could potentially form a coalition, though they lack a clear majority.

The tiny BSW party, which combines leftist economics with hard-right immigration policies, could play kingmaker if it crosses the 5% threshold to enter parliament.

Pressure builds within CDU

Merz watched the results from CDU headquarters in Berlin but did not speak publicly. The outcome represents another setback as his approval ratings have dropped in recent months.

Dennis Radtke, chairman of the CDU’s employee wing, called the vote a “watershed moment” and said the usual responses about a “bitter evening” would not be enough.

However, Thorsten Frei, leader of the centre-right parliamentary group, urged calm and noted that Merz was elected for a four-year term.

Political scientist Oliver Lembcke of Ruhr University Bochum said the result marked more than just an electoral defeat for the CDU. “We are witnessing a tectonic shift in the party system,” he said. “A protest and opposition party is transforming – at least in parts of east Germany – into a party with a realistic prospect of holding power.”

The AfD was founded in 2013 as a eurosceptic protest party before shifting focus to Islam and immigration, opposing former CDU chancellor Angela Merkel’s open-door refugee policy.

Merz has attempted to return the CDU to its conservative roots through tougher immigration controls while working to revive Germany’s stagnant economy. Despite this shift, the AfD has continued to gain ground in the former communist eastern states.

Lembcke noted that Merz “took office with the promise of pushing back the AfD – yet instead, the party has grown even stronger”. He added: “This confronts Merz with a question of renewed urgency: what strategy can the CDU use to reverse this trend?”

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