Forty-four years is a long time to hold a grudge, but Algeria haven’t forgotten. When they face Austria in Saturday’s group finale, memories of football’s most notorious stitch-up will come flooding back, and the cruel irony is that the very conditions that enabled the 1982 “disgrace of Gijon” are back on the menu.

The expansion to 48 teams was supposed to democratise the World Cup, spreading football’s greatest show to more nations and creating unforgettable moments. Instead, it’s opened a Pandora’s box of sporting integrity issues that threaten to turn the group stages into a calculated farce where gentleman’s agreements trump genuine competition.

The ghost of Gijon

Austria’s 1-0 defeat to West Germany in 1982 remains seared into World Cup folklore for all the wrong reasons. The two European sides shamelessly played out a result that sent both through at Algeria’s expense, prompting worldwide outrage and a fruitless formal complaint from the North Africans. FIFA’s response was simple, final group matches would be played simultaneously to prevent collusion.

That safeguard remains in place, but the return of third-placed qualifiers, absent since 1994, has created new opportunities for teams to game the system. With eight of the 12 group’s best thrid places advancing, four points is virtually guaranteed passage to the knockouts. Suddenly, dead rubbers and mutually beneficial draws are everywhere.

The temptation of the truce

Australia and Paraguay square off on Thursday in Santa Clara, both sitting on three points after identical results against Turkey and co-hosts the United States. A draw sends both through. Simple mathematics, simple solution, if both fancy a stroll rather than a scrap.

“I think you’re cheating the game in a way if you’re looking to just call a truce with 10 minutes to go,” said Australia defender Jason Geria. “We could both progress with a point, that’s evident, but I don’t think it’s in us to just concede or take the foot off the gas.”

Noble words, but history suggests noble intentions don’t always survive when survival is on the line.

Egypt and Iran meet in Seattle on Friday in another clash where a gentlemanly handshake at one goal apiece suits all parties. Iran, having overcome enormous challenges due to Tehran-Washington tensions to remain unbeaten, would reach the knockouts for the first time in their history. Egypt could top Group G with a point, provided Belgium don’t thrash New Zealand. Why risk it?

Format flaw after format flaw

The problems don’t end with potential collusion. For the first time, FIFA are using head-to-head records instead of goal difference as the primary tiebreaker for countries level on points. The result? Mexico, the United States, Germany and Argentina have already sealed top spot, whilst Haiti, Turkey, Tunisia, Jordan and Panama know they’re heading home. Third matches become meaningless exercises.

Then there’s the timing discrepancy. Scotland face Brazil in Miami on Wednesday with three points in the bag, having absolutely no idea whether a narrow defeat will suffice to progress for the first time. Algeria and Austria, playing three days later, will know exactly what result serves their purposes. It’s a fundamental inequality baked into the format.

The 64 team elephant in the room

Whispers are already circulating that a 64-team World Cup is inevitable, a bloated behemoth that would allow a traditional last-32 knockout bracket. The Athletic reported that South American powerbrokers floated the idea ahead of the 2030 tournament, and whilst resistance exists, FIFA’s appetite for revenue may prove impossible to resist.

The current edition is missing commercial juggernauts China and India, whilst four-time champions Italy failed to qualify for a third consecutive tournament. From a business perspective, more teams means more markets, more broadcast deals, more cash.

The expansion has delivered heartwarming stories, Cape Verde drawing with Spain and Uruguay, Curaçao earning their first World Cup point, Scotland’s Tartan Army charming Boston, but the price may be an anticlimactic group-stage conclusion riddled with tactical withdrawals and pre-arranged results.

Algeria will remember Gijon. The question is whether we’re about to create a dozen more disgraces just like it.