The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has warned the public about a false message circulating on social media claiming that a storm called “Baron” will affect Southern Africa from Saturday 10 January.
SAWS categorically stated that the “Storm Baron” warning is a hoax and urged people to disregard the information. However, the weather service confirmed that a real intense low-pressure system is expected to develop over Mozambique in the coming days.
Real weather system approaching
There is currently no tropical cyclone activity over the south-western Indian Ocean, and no officially recognised storm named Baron exists.
The genuine low-pressure system is forecast to develop over southern Mozambique before moving further south. It will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to north-eastern parts of South Africa from early Saturday morning lasting until Thursday 15 January.
The areas most likely to be affected include the escarpment and lowveld regions of Limpopo and Mpumalanga, as well as north-eastern KwaZulu-Natal.
Uncertainty over rainfall amounts
SAWS noted significant uncertainty regarding the exact placement of the system’s core, which directly influences where the heaviest rainfall will occur.
Several numerical weather prediction models place the system’s centre to the east of South Africa, over southern Mozambique, whilst others indicate it could track much closer to the country.
The first scenario would result in relatively lower rainfall amounts, whilst the second could mean very high totals, potentially reaching several hundred millimetres in some places.
SAWS continues to closely monitor the situation. The weather service urged the public to monitor official SAWS forecasts and warnings continuously, remain cautious of unauthorised information sources, and refrain from distributing unverified information.
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