Dis ongelooflik hoe vinnig dinge kan verander. In minder as \u2019n maand het die Suid-Afrikaanse sowel as die Amerikaanse aandelebeurs met 10 000 en 5 000 punte onderskeidelik geval. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dis asof die w\u00eareld geen geskiedenis oor virusse en\/of gesondheidskrisisse het nie. Tog is die teendeel waar \u2013 die eerste cholera-pandemie (1817 tot 1824) in Asi\u00eb het die lewe van ongeveer 100 000 mense ge\u00ebis. Meer as 12 miljoen het in die builepesplaagpandemie in 1855 gesterf. Net minder as 20 jaar gelede \u2013 in November 2002 \u2013 het Sars (die erg akute respiratoriese sindroom) uitgebreek. Sowat 8 100 gevalle is aangemeld met 774 sterftes in 37 lande. Terloops, di\u00e9 virus was ook \u2019n korona\u00advirus en het ook sy oorsprong in China gehad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
My punt is \u2013 die mensdom het die afgelope 200 jaar reeds verskeie dodelike gesondheidskrisisse oorleef; so sal ons ook die Covid-19 oorleef. SA het volgens die W\u00eareldgesondheidsorganisasie (WGO) een van die swakste padveilig\u00adheids\u00adrekords, tog dink ons nie twee keer voordat ons die pad vat nie, maar daar is niks paniek nie. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Mense gaan heel moontlik sterf en daar gaan ook enorme ekonomiese kostes wees. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Intussen breek daar ook \u2019n prysoorlog tussen die olieproduserende lande uit, veral Saoedi-Arabi\u00eb en Rusland. Die olieprys het van $54 per vat op 20 Februarie tot $31 per vat op 9 Maart getuimel. Dit is \u2019n ongelooflike val wat die markte heeltemal onkant betrap het. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dit is natuurlik baie goeie nuus vir ons as platsak verbruikers, maar ek is bevrees die val gaan van korte duur wees. Ek kan dit net nie insien dat Saoedi-Arabi\u00eb en Rusland lank met sulke lae pryse sal kan oorleef nie. Hulle sal tot \u2019n vergelyk kom, maar die kenners meen pryse gaan die volgende paar maande nie veel meer as $40 per vat wees nie, wat steeds goeie nuus vir ons lendelam ekonomie is. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Die lae olieprys skep natuurlik ruimte vir die SA Reserwebank om rentekoerse meer aggressief te verlaag. Ek stem saam dat \u2019n laer rentekoers nie op sy eie die antwoord vir SA se ekonomiese probleme is nie, maar dis al wat ons op die oomblik het. Sake- sowel as verbruikersvertroue is op die oomblik uiters negatief, dus sien ek rentekoerse eerder as \u2019n instrument om vertroue in die land te stimuleer as iets om ekonomiese groei te stimuleer. Ons het ekonomiese groei meer as enigiets anders in ons pragtige land nodig. Ons weet dat die ekonomie die laaste ses maande tegnies in \u2019n resessie is; die SA bevolking het die afgelope ses jaar met gemiddeld 1,3% per jaar gegroei en die ekonomie met minder as 1% oor dieselfde tydperk. Dus, in terme van per capita-groei het ons die afgelope ses jaar negatiewe groei beleef. In re\u00eble terme het ons as land armer geword. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Een potensi\u00eble voordeel van die koronavirus is dat China sy aansien en beeld as \u2019n betroubare en bestendige handelsvennoot baie seergemaak het. Ek dink baie lande gaan hul vervaardiging-blootstelling aan China oor die volgende paar maande en jare gaan verminder \u2013 en redelik drasties ook. Die soektog vir vervaardigingsbestemmings het begin. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Volgens die Nikkei Asian Review <\/i>is daar ongeveer 50 w\u00eareldmaatskappye, onder meer Apple en Nintendo, wat reeds besig is om hul vervaardiging uit China te neem. \u2019n Artikel in die International Manufacturing Journal <\/i>beskryf di\u00e9 eksodus as volg: \u201cElvis has left the building.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n
As dit nie groot moontlikhede vir SA skep nie, weet ek nie wat gaan nie..<\/span> Dr. Clive Coetzee (ecoreports@gmail.com) is \u2019n ekonoom verbonde aan die Noordwes-Universiteit. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ons en die 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