Ondanks w\u00eareldwye en plaaslike ekonomiese terugslae is die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie, anders as verwag, nie in \u2019n te slegte posisie nie, meen Jac Laubscher, voormalige ekonoom van die Sanlam Groep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Laubscher was die spreker by die vergadering van die Durbanville-Sakekamer verlede Donderdagaand by die Rust-en-Vrede-galery in Wellingtonweg in Durbanville. Hy het sakelui moed ingepraat en ges\u00ea die goeie nuus is dat Suid-Afrika se ekonomie stabiel is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cOns het baie om voor dankbaar te wees, maar ook baie om op voort te bou,\u201d het Laubscher ges\u00ea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cDie sakekamer se lede is eienaars van klein tot mediumgrootte sake-ondernemings, wat be\u00efnvloed word deur faktore spesifiek tot die bedrywe waarin hulle betrokke is en hul onmiddellike sake-omgewing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cMaar hulle bevind hulle ook binne \u2019n groter prentjie van ekonomiese veranderlikes en beleid wat op \u2019n nasionale en internasionale vlak bepaal word,\u201d het Laubscher ges\u00ea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Volgens hom volg Suid-Afrika (SA) tendense in die internasionale ekonomie en loop die land se ekonomiese siklus saam met die internasionale siklus, veral weens fluktuasies in kommoditeitsmarkte \u2013 kommoditeite verteenwoordig 60% van SA se uitvoer, wat kapitaalvloei na SA be\u00efnvloed, asook periodes van ekonomiese opswaai afhanklik van meevallers vanuit die internasionale ekonomie. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cDit was die afgelope 20 jaar swakker weens die beperkte vermo\u00eb van kommoditeitsprodusente soos die mynwese om nie net uit ho\u00ebr pryse voordeel te trek nie, maar ook om produksie en uitvoervolumes te verhoog,\u201d het hy ges\u00ea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Volgens Laubscher is Covid-19 steeds \u2019n risikofaktor en nie verby nie. \u201cDie nagevolge is nog steeds met ons. Meeste lande het nog nie hul voor-Covid-vlak van ekonomiese aktiwiteit bereik nie. Die meerderheid van lande sal dit nie voor 2026 herwin nie. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cHerstel wissel van land tot land en van bedryf tot bedryf. Ontwikkelde lande herstel vinniger as ontwikkelende en opkomende marklande weens hul groter vermo\u00eb om die ekonomie deur fiskale en monet\u00eare beleid te stimuleer en het beter toegang tot inentings,\u201d het hy ges\u00ea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
SA se re\u00eble bruto binnelandse produk (BBP) is steeds 1,5% laer as aan die einde van 2019. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cAs verlede jaar se onrus in KwaZulu-Natal en Gauteng nie plaasgevind het nie, sou ons reeds verby die 2019-vlak gewees het, wat merkwaardig sou wees. SA sou hom bevind het in die geselskap van \u2019n uitgesoekte groepie lande,\u201d het hy ges\u00ea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Die grootste bydrae het van die prim\u00eare sektor (mynbou en landbou) gekom terwyl die sekond\u00eare sektor steeds 10% onder die 2019-vlak is, volgens Laubscher. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cSA is goed op pad om verby die daling weens Covid-19 te kom. In China, waar drastiese inperkings weer ingestel is, is dit egter die teenoorgestelde. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cDrastiese inperkings be\u00efnvloed besteding en produksie, wat die ekonomiese groei in China laat verlangsaam. China is \u2019n belangrike handelsvennoot van SA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cDie groei in China verlangsaam ook weens die veroudering van sy bevolking, stadiger toename in sy arbeidsmag, styging in arbeidskoste, terugkeer na groter staatsbeheer en sy krimpende aantreklikheid as beleggingsbestemming,\u201d het hy ges\u00ea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Die oorlog in Oekra\u00efne is ook negatief vir veral Europese, maar ook globale ekonomiese aktiwiteit, het hy ges\u00ea. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cDie styging in kommoditeitspryse (spesifiek van energie en voedsel) en ho\u00ebr inflasie dwing sentrale banke om \u2019n strenger monet\u00eare beleid te volg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cAnder faktore is die ontwrigting van internasionale ekonomiese verhoudings, die gevolge van sanksies wat nog nie eintlik sigbaar nie en die onsekerheid van hoe lank die oorlog gaan duur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cTyd sal leer wat die implikasies van die oorlog, tesame met China se anti-Westerse skuif, vir die internasionale orde sal wees \u2013 polities sowel as ekonomies, en hoe SA hom in die veranderende w\u00eareld sal posisioneer,\u201d het hy ges\u00ea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Volgens ekonomiese statistieke is die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie redelik stabiel, hoewel op \u2019n te lae vlak en met talle uitdagings, het Laubscher ges\u00ea. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cDit word bevestig deur die kredietgraderingsagentskappe Moody\u2019s en Fitch, wat SA se waardering twee kerwe onder sy beleggingsgradering gehou het met \u2019n stabiele vooruitsig. Dit beteken hulle verwag nie dat die gradering in die nabye toekoms aangepas sal word nie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cS&P het SA opgradeer na \u2019n positiewe vooruitsig \u2013\u2002dus dat hulle voorsien dat die volgende verandering in SA se kredietgradering \u2019n opgradering sal wees, maar dit kan tot twee jaar vat. SA het nog \u2019n lang pad om te gaan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cSA se lopende rekening het verlede jaar \u2019n oorskot gelykstaande aan 3,7% van BBP aangeteken teenoor \u2019n tekort van 2,6% in 2020. Dit was hoofsaaklik te danke aan ho\u00ebr kommoditeitspryse en sal na verwagting vanjaar weer \u2019n oorskot van 2% van BBP lewer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cSA se ruilvoet (verhouding van uitvoerpryse tot invoerpryse) het in 2021 met 4,6% verbeter \u2013 kumulatief met 19,1% van 2019 tot 2021. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cDit was veral te danke aan ho\u00eb kommoditeitspryse wat \u2019n styging van 14,5 % in die indeks van uitvoerpryse ondersteun het, en meer as gekompenseer het vir die styging in oliepryse,\u201d het hy ges\u00ea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cDie land se wisselkoers is ook redelik stabiel. Die rand het onlangs verstewig in reaksie op die verhoging in die repokoers en S&P se opgradering van die vooruitsig vir SA se kredietgradering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cDie rand het ook sedert die begin van die jaar teenoor al die belangrike geldeenhede versterk en ons is eintlik op die oomblik nie in \u2019n slegte posisie nie,\u201d het hy ges\u00ea.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ondanks terugslae is ons ekonomie nie in \u2019n te slegte posisie nie, meen Jac Laubscher, voormalige ekonoom van die Sanlam 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