International Monetary Fund<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\nBut the global market is shifting. As consumers increasingly turn to synthetic stones from China and India, the average price of a one-carat natural diamond has slumped \u2013 from $6,819 in May 2022 to $4,997 by December 2024, World Diamond Council figures show.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Botswana, 70% of which is desert, was lifted from poverty by its diamond discovery in the 1960s. Now, it is already feeling the impact of lab-grown competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Risks of economic collapse<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Falling revenues are straining public finances. With foreign reserves dwindling, the government has turned to debt to fund essential services. In August, the health system nearly collapsed, prompting President Boko to declare a state of emergency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIf left unaddressed, there is a real risk of the situation becoming not just an economic challenge but a social time bomb,\u201d he warned in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ratings agency S&P echoed those fears on Friday, downgrading Botswana\u2019s long-term rating to \u201cBBB\u201d with a negative outlook. The agency cited the rapid expansion of synthetic diamonds, which by 2025 had captured about 20% of the global market by value and up to 50% by volume in the U.S. engagement ring segment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cDiversification is essentially now or never,\u201d Verster said. \u201cWe don\u2019t see anything that would shift consumer demand back toward natural diamonds.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Lesotho feels the strain<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Neighboring Lesotho, where diamonds account for up to 10% of its $2 billion GDP, is also suffering. Its vital textile industry has been hit by U.S. tariffs, and this month its largest diamond mine, Letseng, announced plans to cut 20% of its workforce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The closures \u201ccould heighten risks of economic collapse,\u201d independent analyst Thabo Qhesi told AFP, urging a pivot toward other resources such as rare earth minerals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In June, Angola, Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo pledged to allocate 1% of annual diamond revenues to marketing natural stones. The aim: reposition them as coveted luxury products.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWe see a significant opportunity to engage consumers in the story of responsibly sourced diamonds from Botswana,\u201d De Beers told AFP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The company, meanwhile, is diversifying itself \u2013 exploring uses for synthetic diamonds in high-tech sectors such as quantum networks and semiconductors, where prices have dropped below $100 per carat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For Botswana\u2019s minerals ministry, both natural and lab-grown diamonds have a place. \u201cThey offer different value propositions to different consumers and therefore can and will coexist,\u201d said official Jacob Thamage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That divide was stark in a Johannesburg luxury mall: behind steel gates, a natural yellow diamond priced at more than $50,000 glittered under heavy security, while just steps away a $115 lab-grown stone sat unguarded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWe each have our target,\u201d one jeweller said. \u201cSo long as everyone is happy.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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