{"id":266175,"date":"2025-07-28T12:54:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-28T10:54:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/?p=266175"},"modified":"2025-08-04T15:29:17","modified_gmt":"2025-08-04T13:29:17","slug":"wits-study-climate-change-significantly-worsened-deadly-2022-durban-floods","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/wits-study-climate-change-significantly-worsened-deadly-2022-durban-floods\/","title":{"rendered":"Wits study: Climate change significantly worsened deadly 2022 Durban floods"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The catastrophic Durban floods of April 2022, which claimed 544 lives and displaced tens of thousands, were made significantly worse by climate change<\/a>, a new study led by Wits University has confirmed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The research, published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, is a formal scientific attribution of the event. It shows that rainfall during the storm of 11\u201312 April 2022 was between 40% and 107% heavier than it would have been in a cooler, pre-industrial climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Using cutting-edge climate modelling developed by Professor Francois Engelbrecht<\/a>, Director of the Global Change Institute at the University of the Witwatersrand (Wits), in collaboration with national and international partners, the study represents a major leap forward in the continent\u2019s ability to analyse how global warming is driving extreme weather.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The research identified three key drivers behind the intensified rainfall:
\u2022 A warmer atmosphere, fuelled by greenhouse gases, holds more moisture;
\u2022 The Agulhas Current has warmed in recent decades, increasing ocean evaporation and feeding moisture into coastal storms;
\u2022 Changes in wind patterns are funnelling more moist air into KwaZulu-Natal.
The team also modelled future scenarios, warning that storms in eastern South Africa will likely become even more intense as the planet continues to warm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Damage
Research, published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment,shows that rainfall during the storm of 11\u201312 April 2022 was between 40% and 107% heavier than it would have been in a cooler, pre-industrial climate.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Building resilience in a warming world<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The climate attribution model used in the study took nearly three years to develop after President Ramaphosa\u2019s initial comments. \u201cWe need to move from academic modelling to near-operational capability \u2014 where we can confirm within days, not years, whether climate change intensified a disaster. With even faster next generation computers being installed at the CHPC and our newly established modelling system, this is absolutely achievable,\u201d says Engelbrecht.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn the short term, we need robust Disaster Risk Reduction plans that can evacuate people from high-risk areas with just a few days\u2019 notice,\u201d said Engelbrecht. \u201cThis demands advanced Early Warning Systems and, importantly, trust in those systems at community level. In the long term, we must help people to relocate to safer locations \u2014 above the flood line. But this is a difficult and costly process in cities that are growing rapidly and informally.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Local leadership rising to the challenge<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Mayor Cyril Xaba of eThekwini has welcomed the research findings. In eThekwini, local government is already taking action. Working with the University of KwaZulu-Natal, the municipality has developed a Community-Based Flood Early Warning System (CBFEWS) in Quarry Road West Informal Settlement. During the April 2022 floods, the system was activated, and no lives were lost, despite over 120 dwellings being washed away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve seen time and again the value of working with communities to create very local flood warnings,\u201d says Dr Sean O\u2019Donoghue, Senior Manager: Climate Change Adaptation at eThekwini Municipality. \u201cThis climate attribution study marks a watershed moment \u2014 we now have definitive, scientific evidence of how climate change is impacting us, and more importantly, what we need to plan for\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Through the INACCT Resilience project, funded by CLARE and in partnership with ICLEI Africa, the City is expanding localised warning systems across vulnerable areas. It is also growing the Transformative Riverine Management Programme, which employs local residents to clear debris from waterways \u2014 a key step in managing future floods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the provincial level, the Department of Water and Sanitation, uMngeni-Thukela Water, and research partnerships are collaborating through international programmes such as WaRisCo (under the WASA programme) and REPRESA (CLARE programme) to reduce both flood and drought risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe silver lining to the dark storm clouds threatening South Africa\u2019s east coast is that government at all levels is embracing climate science to protect lives. But efforts must now expand rapidly \u2014 especially into the Eastern Cape, where risks are rising,\u201d says Engelbrecht.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The catastrophic Durban floods of April 2022, which claimed 544 lives and displaced tens of thousands, were made significantly worse by climate change, a new study led by Wits University has 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In coming decades, shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns because of climate change will significantly influence where and in what numbers African species of moths and butterflies are to be found.\u00a0 This is according to a study\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "News"","block_context":{"text":"News","link":"https:\/\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/news\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/914298936792428c86e35e53757b893d.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/914298936792428c86e35e53757b893d.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/914298936792428c86e35e53757b893d.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/914298936792428c86e35e53757b893d.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"distributor_meta":false,"distributor_terms":false,"distributor_media":false,"distributor_original_site_name":"NovaNews","distributor_original_site_url":"https:\/\/novanews.co.za","push-errors":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266175","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/84"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=266175"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/266175\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/266178"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=266175"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=266175"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=266175"},{"taxonomy":"newspack_spnsrs_tax","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspack_spnsrs_tax?post=266175"},{"taxonomy":"publication","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/novanews.co.za\/eikestadnuus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/publication?post=266175"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}